News – Business & Economi

The trade deficit of France fell to 3.796 billion euros from 5.179 billion in June (revised) the previous month, thanks to increased exports find their level two years ago, according to data CVS / OCJ posted Friday by Customs.

Throughout the first half, the deficit increased to 24.544 billion against 22.928 billion during the first six months of 2009, a decline due mainly to the increase in energy costs.

The deficit for June was better than expected – economists polled by Reuters expecting an average of 4.5 billion, the lowest estimate is 4.0 billion – and is explained by an increase of 10% exports.

The balance of May has additionally been revised downwards to 5.179 billion 5.500 billion instead of an initial estimate announced a month ago, but nonetheless the highest since October 2008.

Exports FOB data CVS / CJO jumped 10.2% to 33.016 billion euros in June against 29.948 billion in May, reaching their highest level since August and September 2008.

Imports were up to their side of 36.812 billion euros against 35.127 billion the previous month.

In the second quarter alone, exports rose 2.6%, after rising 5.1% the first three months of the year, while imports rose 7.4% after +2.1% within the scope of energy purchases.

SALES OF AIRBUS straighten

Improved trade balance in June was primarily due to exports of transport equipment. France has sold on July 26 Airbus which it earned 1.719 million euros against 19 aircraft to 1,050 million euros in May, combined to deliver a packet.

"The sales of transportation equipment, which fell 1.4 billion euros in May, are better than recover.Outside major contracts, industrial exports are also dynamic, "according to Customs in their commentary.

"Throughout the first half, the resumption of trade undertaken in late 2009 has intensified, not found for all the pre-crisis levels," added the administration.

Of these six months, exports rose 5.9% to 187.0 billion euros, compared with an increase of 3.9% in the second half of 2009.

After two semesters of decline, aerospace sales have rebounded by 10.4%, France has supplied over the period 141 Airbus worth 9.4 billion euros.

Automotive exports have, however, increased only 4.3% after rising by 19.5% in the previous semester when they had received "car scrapping" in most European countries.

The mechanical and electronic equipment, pharmaceuticals, intermediate goods (chemicals, metals), agricultural products and energy products have also been well directed, according to Customs figures.

REBOUND AMPLIFIED

Imports have increased their share from 7.4% in the first half, after +2.1% in the previous six months, mainly due to the depreciation of the euro has made it more expensive energy purchases paid in dollars.

The energy bill was so weighty $ 23.2 billion against 20.1 billion in the second half of 2009.

Excluding energy, the increase in imports is only 5.6%, after +2.2% in the second half of 2009, note Customs.

If it has increased the energy bill, the weaker euro has instead favored exports that show a 10% increase compared to the first six months of 2009.

"In the first half of 2010, the French foreign trade has amplified the rebound started in late 2009 by taking advantage of the upturn in world trade and strong demand from emerging countries," said Anne-Marie Idrac, Secretary of State Foreign Trade, in a statement.

"Exports rose to virtually all trading partners, with particular vigor to China or Brazil," she adds.

Towards Germany, the largest trading partner of France, exports grew by 8.5% in the first half.Those to Spain, however, fell 1.4%, reflecting the difficulties of this country is, after Germany and Italy, the third biggest market for French exports.

The press kit released by Bercy reported encouraging outlook for the rest of the year.

"France will continue to benefit, assuming a stabilization of the exchange rate of the euro, an enhanced price competitiveness, the effects on sales will be realized fully in the second half of 2010 and 2011, especially to large emerging markets, "it reads.

Axa announced Wednesday better than expected financial results for the first half performance in line with its objective to give priority to the recovery in margins rather than the development of its turnover.

Net income for the second European group of insurance by market capitalization stood at 944 million euros, a figure well above the 623 million approached by the consensus of analysts conducted by the editor of Reuters.

"In the first half of 2010, we focused on optimizing our margins on all our business lines," said a statement from the Group CEO Henri De Castries.

If the result is displayed down 28% over the same period last year, this drop is due to the supply of 1.478 billion euros spent by the group following the sale of some of its assets in the United Kingdom.

Without this extraordinary loss, net income would increase by 81%.

The decline in operating income of 3% to 2.082 billion euros, a performance superior to 1.884 billion as planned by Reuters, while turnover has increased it from 1% to 49.925 billion euros.

The band's performance "We will strengthen our ability to rebound when the economy will become clearer," said Henri de Castries.

Axa has not commented on the offer of 11.5 billion dollars from the National Australia Bank on its subsidiary AXA Asia Pacific.

The subsidiary has announced a profit of 219.2 million Australian dollars for the first six months of the year, a figure in line with market expectations.

The offer, which clashed with the Australian authorities to the competition runs until August 31.

The title Axa lost 10.9% since the beginning of the year, while the European index DJStoxx insurance is up 3.16%.

Sanofi-Aventis could make a first offer around $ 70 per share to acquire U.S. biotech Genzyme, analysts said.

Some consider that the French pharmaceutical group may raise its offer to $ 80.

Under cover of anonymity, one analyst said that "70 dollars would be a first offer" and that "at $ 80 it remains a good deal for Sanofi.

Same story for another sector specialist who believes that $ 80 "operation creates value in three years that will follow."

Citigroup, meanwhile, said that Sanofi will likely be the only buyer of American specialist on rare diseases and will pay between 74-77 dollars per share, or 19.7 to 20.5 billion dollars (15.0 to 15 6 billion euros).

Citi analysts consider that "insofar Sanofi may be the only buyer, and that shareholders are aware that Genzyme may fall into the lower half of the range of 50-60 dollars, unless an agreement is not passed the matter will be at 74-77 dollars. "

They add that the French lab could launch a hostile bid if Genzyme resists and present its offer directly to shareholders.

The shareholder Relational Investors, Carl Icahn, who hold respectively 3.8% and 4.9% from Genzyme, could be satisfied with an offer around $ 75 since they bought at 61 and 54 dollars, says Citi.

Sanofi, an agreement would be $ 75 4% accretive in 2011 and 13% in 2013, analysts have calculated the Citi.

At Raymond James, Eric Le Berrigaud doubt that "70 dollars is sufficient.Starting at $ 70, is ready to go up to $ 80, "he notes." And at 80 dollars it is not certain whether all the guarantees of success since c is roughly the level or was action before Genzyme's production problems.

The biotech has enjoyed last year a series of production problems on its sites in the U.S., which continue to weigh on its business.

"SANOFI PREFERRED FINANCIAL LOGIC"

A fourth analyst insists that Sanofi is expected to launch its bid for Genzyme even if it does not create value for the group's objective is to increase its earnings per share.

"For the operation to bring value, it should pay less than $ 70 per share, or about 64 dollars," he says."If Sanofi launches operation beyond, is that the group favors a financial logic in the short to medium term to close down its results and not the logic of value creation."

For him, "the title Genzyme could return to $ 80 after the settlement of industrial problems, but very transient because its treatment of Gaucher's disease could soon be rivaled.

Sources familiar with the case, it said last week that Sanofi intended to send a letter to Genzyme with the terms of its offer.This offer would be like "bear hug", that is to say friendly at first but may become hostile if necessary.

The Board of Directors of Sanofi has authorized a $ 18.7 billion dollars, said last week, sources familiar with the matter. But Sanofi has financial guidelines allowing it to raise its offer, that is to say, to bring more than $ 70 per share, said a source.

The experts, anyway, that Genzyme is a suspect "white knight" to deal with Sanofi.

A spokesman for the Financial Markets Authority said that the French system which requires an initiator to declare his intentions in certain conditions if the rumors do not apply when the target is foreign.In this case, the law of the country in which the target company is applying, "she added.

The action dealt Genzyme Monday up 0.5% to 69.93 dollars in early afternoon on Wall Street. In Paris, the title Sanofi closed at 45.4 euros (1.88%).

LVMH Tuesday reported a strong rebound in sales and profitability in the first half, driven by the performance of Louis Vuitton and the resumption of activities that had been during the crisis, heavily penalized by destocking.

After Hermes and Burberry, the giant figures confirm global luxury goods sector recovery in the first quarter after suffering in 2009 the largest decline in its history with sales down 8%, according to estimates from Bain & Co.

LVMH saw sales reach 9.09 billion euros, a figure slightly above the consensus reached by the editor of Reuters (8.87 billion euros), growing by 16% as reported.

In comparable data, the dynamics of organic growth was confirmed, the sales growth standing at 14% in the first half, after 13% in the first three months of the year.

Full advantage of the good momentum in sales and cost reduction programs implemented in 2009, during the crisis, current operating income jumped 33% to 1.816 billion euros (1.7 billion Reuters ), advancing 2.5 points the group's operating margin to 19.9% (against 17.5% a year earlier).

Unsurprisingly, these are activities that had suffered most from the crisis and overstocks – namely wines and spirits (Moet & Chandon, Dom Perignon or Ruinart) jewelry and watches (Tag Heuer, Zenith, Chaumet and Fred ) – which recorded the highest increases in sales (+18% and +24% respectively on a comparable basis).

In fashion, leather goods, the division's most profitable group with Louis Vuitton, the main profit center of LVMH sales up 14%.

Turnover increased 10% in perfumes and cosmetics (Dior, Givenchy and Guerlain) and 13% in the selective distribution (perfumery chain Sephora, the department store Le Bon Marche, or network based DFS sales in duty by passengers).

The stock closed at 92.26 euros on the Paris Stock Exchange Tuesday, down 2.91% to an increase of 17.7% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the European diversified consumer goods advancing 13.7% over the period.

The value of trades on valuation multiples of about 18 times its estimated profits for 2011, against 16 times the industry average for non-Hermes.

Orpea announced Wednesday an increase of 16.3% of its turnover in the first half and confirmed its full-year 2012.

The manager of nursing homes and clinics completed a first half sales of 470 million euros, representing organic growth of 9.3%.

The group has enjoyed a growth of 17.2% in France, which represents the bulk of its sales.

"Orpea confirms with great serenity, its sales targets for the current year and for 2011 and 2012, respectively 960 million, 1.100 million and 1.225 million euros," says in a statement.

In the second quarter alone, sales rose 16.5%, giving an organic growth of 9.1%.

For the second half, the group, which had in March 28.073 beds, expects the opening of many schools.

The shares closed Tuesday at 31.2150 euros, giving a market capitalization of about $ 1.2 billion.

France Telecom announced that it aims, through its new development plan over five years, 300 million customers by 2015 on all its markets, against 200 million today.

The telecoms group said in a statement it was also planning to hire 10,000 employees in France over the period 2010-2012.

The measures provided for in the new "social contract" of the group in France, intended to respond to the discomfort shown by a series of suicides of his employees, an envelope of 900 million euros over the same period, excluding the expected savings on the program part-time senior citizens and attrition.

"The group's ambition is to return as a spirit of conquest in international development, based on an acquisition policy unchanged, in which no operation 'transforming' is considered.

In emerging markets, it is particularly expected to double revenue within 5 years, has also informed the company.

France Telecom has also reaffirmed that "the conquest of networks" was "its core business."By 2015, it plans to invest two billion euros in the deployment of fiber optics in France, which ensure coverage of 40% of homes and being present in all parts of city by 2012, and all departments by 2015 (including three overseas departments).

The group reiterated its forecast of generation eight billion euros in organic cash flow per year in 2010 and 2011.

The Paris Bourse is rising again on Friday after losing 3% yesterday, in expectation of monthly U.S. employment in the afternoon.

Around 9:15 am, the CAC 40 advanced 0.32% to 3350.67 points.

For its first meeting at the Paris Bourse, Edenred sign the largest increase of ACC (which will be removed Monday) and climbed 17.54% to 13.40 euros. For its part, accuses Accor the largest decline and yields 2.74%.

The bank bounce after being battered again yesterday. BNP Paribas wins 1.3%. The group announced Thursday a partnership with BPCE in consumer credit. Societe Generale gained 0.78%, 0.84% and Dexia Crédit Agricole 0.43%.

Sanofi-Aventis lost 0.52%.The group has refused to comment on reports that he would prepare an acquisition in the United States of at least 20 billion dollars.

Other major European markets also rebounded, London and Frankfurt gained 0.37% 0.42%. As for the European indices, the EuroStoxx 50 advance 0.49% and 0.36% Eurofirst 300.

The euro remains stable against the U.S. dollar resumed after about three cents a day and is trading around 1.252 against the dollar.

U.S. light crude oil was unchanged after its withdrawal on Thursday and is treated slightly above $ 73 a barrel.

Noting a marked turnaround that after months of sluggish demand, Lufthansa is optimistic about his chances to reach its profit target by 2010.

"Despite the first negative quarter and the closure of airspace early April, the developments in recent months has reinforced expectations of a higher operating profit in 2010 than last year," reads a statement released Monday by the airline before a meeting with investors.

In May, Lufthansa had already confirmed its 2010 target of a higher operating profit to 130 million euros generated in 2009.

The company also revised up slightly its forecast for the fuel bill this year, seeing now to 5.3 billion euros against 5.2 billion previously.

About 10:40 GMT, Lufthansa advanced 1.10% to 11.91 euro, making a little more than the index values involving the airline and travel industries (0.57%).

The effort to reduce tax loopholes, covering five billion euros for the period 2011-2013, may be increased to 8.5 billion euros if the situation requires it, said François Fillon.

At a press conference, the Prime Minister said that "further efforts" would be decided by the government if growth is below its forecast.

The government expects 1.4% growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2010 and 2.5% in 2011.

It is too early to consider amending the forecast "for 2011, said Francois Fillon, but stressed that" a rebound "often followed a crisis.

Marc Touati, Associate Director of Global Equities

This topic is more socially and economically. In the current crisis, it is even very controversial, very "dangerous". We must therefore take tweezers in the formulation of the analysis to avoid offending the spell …

I. The model of solidarity to the French: the world's best

Originally the solidarity model, also called French social model may appear as the best in the world. Its basic principle is: high public spending and high tax burdens, but in exchange, through redistribution, greater solidarity and hence less inequality, less unemployment, less poverty and more comfort- be economic.

II.This model of solidarity no longer works

Sadly, the last ten years, this model is fraying, as far as public spending increases more and more (56% of French GDP in 2009), the tax burden is among the highest in the world. Despite this extravagant strategy, growth, structural decline, unemployment is around 10% sustainable, poverty rate increases (14% of French people living below the poverty line), including the widening inequalities in income and health and funding of the retirement pay is more assured. So the French model of solidarity is more effective.

Conclusion: how to find a more effective model

This is where the controversy settled: that it must also increase public spending and taxes.If this solution is certainly easier, it is not credible: it no longer works for 20 years and is a runaway. We must therefore stop veiling the face: the only way to make solidarity in France resides in the ability of the latter to the high growth. To achieve this, we must reduce the tax burden for all, make it as fairer, while lowering the inefficient public spending, including operating expenses.

Jean Paul Betbeze, director of studies of the Credit Agricole

Introduction: The word solidarity is one of the most important part of our vocabulary, one of the most sensitive too, because it is at the crossroads between economic and social. He asked how "to society", that is to say, how to combine growth, efficiency, distribution, justice.The issue of solidarity is today more acute because the growth is not at the rendezvous. This leads to questions about growth (innovation, the company …) and the terms of the distribution of wealth, with the idea that certain expenses, sometimes called Solidarity, were too high and / or have not contributed to growth, as might have been expected.

I. The French social model, an exception

Solidarity meeting in fact a set of situations. For one third of expenditure, are shocks that have affected people, health first, another third are economic shocks, mainly unemployment and its consequences for a third and third is the evolution costs associated with aging. Shock people, economic shock and the shock of aging are the sources of expenditure solidarity.It is necessary to study their relevance, legitimacy and, where possible, their effectiveness. Looking in effect say that young people can not but be struck by the solidarity they restricted themselves to considering. The family, themselves and their friends and cronies. Altogether, they and their entourage. This sends the idea, positively, that the best solidarity begins at home and his family (training, job search and lifestyle), but also that state support, social activities are increasingly counted in First the conditions of retirement and old age support. Truth and realism.

II. There can be no solidarity without growth

So we must find ways to live together solidarity and growth, after some excesses were committed and at the inability to continue as before.It can therefore be, in any event, solidarity without legitimacy, without transparency, without verification. That is no explanation for it, without penalty to the excesses or misrepresentation and – increasingly – without education, training, to avoid any shocks. Economic solidarity corresponds to the current difficulties of the job. Unemployment is the brand, but also retirement (since the nonworking are partly taken into account). But support to individual entrepreneurs (with tax benefits) are also a de facto solidarity. A total of solidarity that we measure is often posterior to the problem, it must be proactive. It must be less than a correction, compensation of a preparation: training throughout life support mobility.Solidarity in the event of sickness is also essential, but it can not avoid the growing support in people themselves. Lifestyle, sports, medical conditions are independent of a reduction of medical risk and provide an old age happier, longer and less dependent on solidarity.

Conclusion: Overall, we must squarely address the solidarity at the intersection of economics and welfare, by making clearer the economy (transparency, fairness, efficiency), the general benefit of society.