News – Business & Economi

Sanofi-Aventis could make a first offer around $ 70 per share to acquire U.S. biotech Genzyme, analysts said.

Some consider that the French pharmaceutical group may raise its offer to $ 80.

Under cover of anonymity, one analyst said that "70 dollars would be a first offer" and that "at $ 80 it remains a good deal for Sanofi.

Same story for another sector specialist who believes that $ 80 "operation creates value in three years that will follow."

Citigroup, meanwhile, said that Sanofi will likely be the only buyer of American specialist on rare diseases and will pay between 74-77 dollars per share, or 19.7 to 20.5 billion dollars (15.0 to 15 6 billion euros).

Citi analysts consider that "insofar Sanofi may be the only buyer, and that shareholders are aware that Genzyme may fall into the lower half of the range of 50-60 dollars, unless an agreement is not passed the matter will be at 74-77 dollars. "

They add that the French lab could launch a hostile bid if Genzyme resists and present its offer directly to shareholders.

The shareholder Relational Investors, Carl Icahn, who hold respectively 3.8% and 4.9% from Genzyme, could be satisfied with an offer around $ 75 since they bought at 61 and 54 dollars, says Citi.

Sanofi, an agreement would be $ 75 4% accretive in 2011 and 13% in 2013, analysts have calculated the Citi.

At Raymond James, Eric Le Berrigaud doubt that "70 dollars is sufficient.Starting at $ 70, is ready to go up to $ 80, "he notes." And at 80 dollars it is not certain whether all the guarantees of success since c is roughly the level or was action before Genzyme's production problems.

The biotech has enjoyed last year a series of production problems on its sites in the U.S., which continue to weigh on its business.

"SANOFI PREFERRED FINANCIAL LOGIC"

A fourth analyst insists that Sanofi is expected to launch its bid for Genzyme even if it does not create value for the group's objective is to increase its earnings per share.

"For the operation to bring value, it should pay less than $ 70 per share, or about 64 dollars," he says."If Sanofi launches operation beyond, is that the group favors a financial logic in the short to medium term to close down its results and not the logic of value creation."

For him, "the title Genzyme could return to $ 80 after the settlement of industrial problems, but very transient because its treatment of Gaucher's disease could soon be rivaled.

Sources familiar with the case, it said last week that Sanofi intended to send a letter to Genzyme with the terms of its offer.This offer would be like "bear hug", that is to say friendly at first but may become hostile if necessary.

The Board of Directors of Sanofi has authorized a $ 18.7 billion dollars, said last week, sources familiar with the matter. But Sanofi has financial guidelines allowing it to raise its offer, that is to say, to bring more than $ 70 per share, said a source.

The experts, anyway, that Genzyme is a suspect "white knight" to deal with Sanofi.

A spokesman for the Financial Markets Authority said that the French system which requires an initiator to declare his intentions in certain conditions if the rumors do not apply when the target is foreign.In this case, the law of the country in which the target company is applying, "she added.

The action dealt Genzyme Monday up 0.5% to 69.93 dollars in early afternoon on Wall Street. In Paris, the title Sanofi closed at 45.4 euros (1.88%).

Several large European companies have released information Thursday surprisingly positive, triggering a sudden resurgence of investor confidence after months of pessimism fueled by the debt crisis and fears of an implosion of the euro area.

With these new found reassuring, have added good indicators for the month of July: further decline in unemployment in Germany and strong growth of economic sentiment in the euro area.

Economists point out however that this resurgence in good mood after the dark days of rumors of a default by Greece and other countries in the euro area should not be forgotten that economic recovery will be gradual given the austerity measures by several governments.

Among the big names who released Thursday, Publicis third global advertising agency, has raised its expectations for 2010 after having exceeded expectations in the first half to gain the favor of budgets and increased costs to its customers.

"Publicis has strengthened during the crisis," said chief executive Maurice Levy to the press.

"We really feel at the end of the economic crisis, or even having put completely behind us," he added.

These words are not isolated.

The Dutch group Randstad specializes in the interim, number two worldwide in its sector, said he did not see any sign of relapse of the economy.Companies are hiring, he said, particularly in Germany and France.

"GROWTH AROUND"

"We are seeing growth everywhere. Even in Greece, we see a normal development. We do not observe any signs of relapse," said Reuters chief financial officer, Robert-Jan van de Kraats.

The American Manpower, which carries the majority of its sales in Europe, acted last week did not see a downturn.

In the pharmacy, the French Sanofi-Aventis posted a higher quarterly earnings expectations – after Friday lowered its target EPS for 2010.His British rival AstraZeneca has posted higher profits.

The European chemical groups that have published their quarterly accounts have emerged Thursday globally strong results in favor of volume growth.BASF, the world first chemist, reported second quarter operating earnings adjusted for exceptional almost doubled to 2.2 billion euros, exceeding the consensus that gave it to 2.03 billion.

In Switzerland, Clariant has raised its annual recovery of the industrial sector and a weaker euro has boosted demand and that allowed him to reach a net profit in the second quarter, well below the consensus, however.

The German conglomerate Siemens Electrical has released an operating profit up 40% for its third fiscal quarter thanks to cost cuts and the weaker euro.

All these new feed more optimism among investors in Europe they appear a little less convinced of the strength of economic recovery in the United States.

The team responsible for global strategy at the UBS bank, raised its recommendation on Europe to "neutral", while she advised previously underweight assets of the region.

UBS said that the Ifo business climate in Germany, a closely watched index, in July recorded its biggest increase in 20 years, growth in gross domestic product in the United Kingdom grew at a rate twice higher than expected second quarter and the results of stress tests performed on the European banks have brought relief.

At the Deutsche Bank economist Gilles Moec wants cautious.

"There is no major change in the table macroeconomic background: we started to slow growth," said he.

The World Cup effect past the French household consumption of manufactured goods fell 1.4% in June and fell 0.9% on the entire second quarter, posting INSEE.

The disappointing figures, well below expectations, suggest a decrease in consumption of all households in the second quarter, including services and supply, which would be a first for two years.

Twenty-three economists polled by Reuters predicted an average increase of 0.2% in June, with estimates ranging from -1.8% to +1.0%.Initially announced at 0.7%, May's increase was revised to 0.6% after a decline of -1.4% in April.

Since the beginning of the year, spending on manufactured goods have registered only two months of increases in March and May The decrease of 0.9% over the entire second quarter followed a 1.9% decline in first.

"The consumer was dynamic in the last quarter of 2009 was considerably weakened when it has always been the mainstay of the business in France.It is a real concern, "said Dominique Barbet, economist at BNP Paribas.

In June, it is the consumer electronics and clothing that have seen their sales drop, taking over auto sales down sharply in early years after the decline of the "scrappage".

After a jump of 6.4% in May, largely due to purchases of televisions before the World Cup in South Africa, the post of home furnishings fell 3.6% in June, biggest drop since November 2002.

For the sole property of consumer electronics, the decline was 3.7% after a surge of 12.4% in May

DROP IN THE CAR Dyked

Spending on textiles and leather have in turn fell 5.0% in anticipation of summer sales that began June 30, five days later than in 2009, but this schedule gives hope for a rebound in July.

For the quarter, the home furnishings rose 3.0% but textiles and leather down 2.8%.

The decline in car sales for its part was contained in June (0.0% after -0.3% in May and -9.2% in April) but the decline reached 8.4% in the quarter, after already a fall of 11.5% in the first quarter.

The 0.9% decline in spending on manufactured goods in the second quarter fears of a decline in overall consumption, for the first time since the second quarter of 2008 when it fell by 0.1%, said Dominique Barbet.

Purchases of manufactured goods account for about one quarter of total household consumption of goods and services, which is much less volatile statistics and published quarterly in the national accounts framework.

In the first quarter, it had stagnated (0.0%), lower than 1.9% of purchases of manufactured goods was offset by an increase in individual consumption of energy.

INSEE, in his memo on the economy published in June, sees yet remain stalled in the second quarter before a rise of 0.3% in the next two quarters.

"The stabilization of consumer sentiment was announced yesterday is quite encouraging, but the outlook remains weak and not with this level of consumption we can expect 1.5% or 2.0% growth," observes the economist of BNP Paribas.

"Household consumption in manufactured goods grows with a horizontal trend since the first half of 2007, although movements in the car drove the second half of 2009," said Philippe Waechter, director of economic research at Natixis Asset Management.

"In relation to a consumer confidence still low, reflecting concerns about jobs and taxes, we can not imagine a rebound coming and it will penalize significantly the growth momentum in the second half."

The U.S. recorded a budget deficit of 68.42 billion dollars in June, the 21th in a row, the Treasury announced.

But the deficit is down by 27% compared to 94.33 billion dollars in June 2009.

Over three quarters of the fiscal year ended September 30, the deficit amounted to 1.004 billion dollars against 1.086 billion in the comparable period of fiscal year 2009.

The latest projections for the deficit in 2010 will be given by the White House July 23 normally. In February, it expected a deficit of 1.600 billion dollars against 1.400 billion in 2009.

Industrial production in France has strongly rebounded in May, rising 1.7% after falling 0.5% the previous month, according to data CVS-CJO published by INSEE.

Twenty-two economists polled by Reuters had expected an average growth of 0.4% of overall industrial production in May, with estimates ranging from 0.0% to 0.9%.

The April figure was revised to -0.5% -0.3% instead announced a month ago.

Manufacturing output, that is to say, outside energy but with food included, rose 0.5% in May after a revised rise of 0.3% (+0.4% in the first estimate) the month precedent.

Marks & Spencer has reported a third consecutive quarter of sales growth recurring but at a slower pace and was cautious, like its competitors, prospects of consumption.

The British group, the number one clothing in the United Kingdom and also present in food and household goods, said its sales at stores open at least a year rose 3.6% the 13 weeks ending July 3, which correspond to the first quarter of its fiscal year.

This increase is in the top end of analyst expectations thanks to good performance clothing.It is, however, lag behind the 5.1% increase the previous quarter.

The recurring sales excluding food fit up 6% while sales in food rose 1.5%.

UK retailers worried about the consequences of tax increases and budget cuts announced by the government on June 22 consumption."We had a good start to our fiscal year, but after the recent budget and the measures taken to reduce the deficit, the increase in VAT, we are cautious on the outlook," said Chief Executive.

However, he ruled out a relapse of the British economy in recession and confirmed the target of a stable gross margin for the entire year.

Marc Bolland, who took over the reins of Marks & Spencer last month, confirmed he will present a strategic plan was updated in November.It could however be facing a revolt from some of its shareholders at the general meeting of the week, some investors do not hide their criticism of his pay 15 million pounds (23 million) annually.

The international sales rose 0.9% while those on the internet via M & S Direct have jumped 49%.

Marks & Spencer has underperformed the Stoxx 600 index of European retail sector by 11% since the beginning of this year. The value finished at 352.7 pence on Tuesday in closing a course corresponding to a capitalization of 5.4 billion pounds.

It yields 2.52% at 343.8 pence in morning

France Telecom announced that it aims, through its new development plan over five years, 300 million customers by 2015 on all its markets, against 200 million today.

The telecoms group said in a statement it was also planning to hire 10,000 employees in France over the period 2010-2012.

The measures provided for in the new "social contract" of the group in France, intended to respond to the discomfort shown by a series of suicides of his employees, an envelope of 900 million euros over the same period, excluding the expected savings on the program part-time senior citizens and attrition.

"The group's ambition is to return as a spirit of conquest in international development, based on an acquisition policy unchanged, in which no operation 'transforming' is considered.

In emerging markets, it is particularly expected to double revenue within 5 years, has also informed the company.

France Telecom has also reaffirmed that "the conquest of networks" was "its core business."By 2015, it plans to invest two billion euros in the deployment of fiber optics in France, which ensure coverage of 40% of homes and being present in all parts of city by 2012, and all departments by 2015 (including three overseas departments).

The group reiterated its forecast of generation eight billion euros in organic cash flow per year in 2010 and 2011.

The Paris Bourse is rising again on Friday after losing 3% yesterday, in expectation of monthly U.S. employment in the afternoon.

Around 9:15 am, the CAC 40 advanced 0.32% to 3350.67 points.

For its first meeting at the Paris Bourse, Edenred sign the largest increase of ACC (which will be removed Monday) and climbed 17.54% to 13.40 euros. For its part, accuses Accor the largest decline and yields 2.74%.

The bank bounce after being battered again yesterday. BNP Paribas wins 1.3%. The group announced Thursday a partnership with BPCE in consumer credit. Societe Generale gained 0.78%, 0.84% and Dexia Crédit Agricole 0.43%.

Sanofi-Aventis lost 0.52%.The group has refused to comment on reports that he would prepare an acquisition in the United States of at least 20 billion dollars.

Other major European markets also rebounded, London and Frankfurt gained 0.37% 0.42%. As for the European indices, the EuroStoxx 50 advance 0.49% and 0.36% Eurofirst 300.

The euro remains stable against the U.S. dollar resumed after about three cents a day and is trading around 1.252 against the dollar.

U.S. light crude oil was unchanged after its withdrawal on Thursday and is treated slightly above $ 73 a barrel.

Like the European stock markets, Wall Street fell heavily on Tuesday because of a resurgence of fears about the budgetary problems of the eurozone when approaching an important deadline that expects European banks Thursday.

In this concern, which brought down the S & P 500 in a session low of 2010 has added the announcement of the sharp drop in U.S. consumer confidence, a statistic that raises questions about the strength of the recovery U.S. economy.

The Dow Jones 30 industrials surrendered 2.65% or 268.22 points to 9870.30. The S & P 500 is broader, lost 33.33 points, or -3.10%, to 1041.24.The Nasdaq Composite fell on its side of 85.47 points (-3.85%) to 2135.18.

This is the first time since June 9 as the Dow and the Nasdaq finished respectively in the 10,000 and under the 2,200 points while the S & P 500 closed at lowest close since the beginning of the year.

Speakers also noted that the S & P 500 broke through the key threshold 1040.78, which until now was the previous low of 2010, thus raising concerns of a further decline of this index in the short and medium term.

The stock market decline began in Asia, has increased in Europe and has also hit Wall Street, where the financial and industrial stocks were the hardest hit.

The CBOE Volatility Index, also known as "index of fear" has surged 17.69% to 34.13, its highest level since early June

Investors have questioned the soundness of the European banking system before a return of 442 billion euros that banks should proceed with the European Central Bank on Thursday.

U.S. consumer confidence as measured by the index of the employers' organization Conference Board, sank in June after three consecutive months of increases, due to concerns related to employment.

Another sign of concern, the Conference Board has revised downward its leading indicator for China in April: it is up more than 0.3% against 1.7% previously announced.

"Investors are holed up in hiding at the slightest problem. This is not a good sign. They are not being spent – there is no fluidity in the movement of money," said Joe Saluzzi, co-director of trading at Themis Trading.

The KBW banking index plunged 4.43%, with JP Morgan Chase yielding 3.84% to 37.06 dollars, Bank of America 4.4% to 14.57 dollars and Wells Fargo 4.07% at 25 $ 93.

Among the heavy industry, Boeing has lost 6.33% to 63.04 dollars, Caterpillar 5.51% to 60.85 dollars.

Noting a marked turnaround that after months of sluggish demand, Lufthansa is optimistic about his chances to reach its profit target by 2010.

"Despite the first negative quarter and the closure of airspace early April, the developments in recent months has reinforced expectations of a higher operating profit in 2010 than last year," reads a statement released Monday by the airline before a meeting with investors.

In May, Lufthansa had already confirmed its 2010 target of a higher operating profit to 130 million euros generated in 2009.

The company also revised up slightly its forecast for the fuel bill this year, seeing now to 5.3 billion euros against 5.2 billion previously.

About 10:40 GMT, Lufthansa advanced 1.10% to 11.91 euro, making a little more than the index values involving the airline and travel industries (0.57%).