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Arnaud Montebourg is the arbiter of the final duel between Martine Aubry and Francois Hollande in the Socialist primary. It requires commitment of both candidates on his favorite themes: the de-globalization, the moralization of finance and the renovation of political institutions. Decryption. Arnaud Montebourg received 17.2% of the votes in the first round of the Socialist primary, Sunday, October 9.

He is the man most courted of the week. With over 17.2% of votes in the first round of the Socialist primary, Arnaud Montebourg can tip the vote of the electorate to the left in the second round, Sunday, Oct. 16, in favor of either Francois Hollande (39, 2% of the vote) or Martine Aubry (30.7%). The deputy of Saone-et-Loire is also raising the stakes: the champion of de-globalization conditioned its support for consideration by the two contenders of his campaign themes.He waits, before deciding to know the positions of mayor of Lille and the member for Corrèze on four themes: "industrial protectionism, financial control, the Fifth Republic and the fight against corruption," Does detailed it in an interview with Liberation. The ideas of Arnaud Montebourg can they find their place in the curricula of Martine Aubry and Francois Hollande? In part, yes.

The fight against corruption

Behind the term corruption, Arnaud Montebourg is of course the dirty business of French politics – the case Karachi, suitcases and of course Ziad Takieddine Guerin splashing the PS of the Bouches-du-Rhone, but also tax havens. The deputy of Saone-et-Loire wants to dismantle tax havens. To do this, he advocates a ban on transactions originating in or destined for the territories.He wants to force French companies have subsidiaries in tax havens to be closed and will repatriate "hidden money" in these territories. It also promises to "severely punish" evasion.

If they have not been a major theme of their campaign, Francois Hollande and Martine Aubry are widely separated positions Montebourg in this area. The two finalists in the primary would also like to strengthen the fight against tax havens. The project also calls for the PS to prohibit banking secrecy within the European Union.

Financial control

Throughout his campaign, Arnaud Montebourg has been the voice of the struggle against "financial chaos". He argues for "dirigiste measures and prohibition." He wants to dismantle such rating agencies and offers in return for establishing a European public rating agency.He also advocated the establishment of an authority markets at European level and the merger of European stock exchanges to avoid unnecessary competition. Montebourg also argues for a 0.1% tax on financial transactions European … being adopted in Europe For banks, the deputy of Saone-et-Loire wants to "put under trusteeship." This would, he said, with an entry "authoritarian" state to the board of financial institutions, with a veto. The first act of the state would force them to separate their banking and retail banking.

Martine Aubry and Francois Hollande agree to force banks to split their activities. However, they are less enthusiastic about the proposal to enter without consideration to their governing body. This can be done, according to two candidates, if the State recapitalize banks.The tax on financial transactions in Europe and the creation of a European public rating agency proposals are included in the proposed PS. No word, however, on a possible merger of the exchanges.

Industrial protectionism

It's his hobby: the "de-globalization" – even if it does not use that word in the letter he sent to Martine Aubry and Francois Hollande. Arnaud Montebourg advocates the introduction of a carbon tax outside the borders of the EU imported products reflect "fair carbon cost, health and social", coupled with a carbon tax "within the Union European "encourage" companies to change their ways of producing. "The deputy of Saone-et-Loire advocates also provide France with an anti-dumping: a mechanism for unilateral ban certain products to market (non-EU) "in case of aggression by trade unfairly low prices."

On this subject, Martine Aubry and Francois Hollande are more cautious. The mayor of Lille prefers to speak of "fair trade" and "globalization safer." Specifically, it supports the creation of a tax "social and environmental planning at the entrance" of the products manufactured outside the EU. François Hollande speaks for his "new rules" of world trade, negotiated with other European partners, with "taxation" or "entry ban" of certain products, particularly from China. But according to the member of Corrèze, protectionism and autarky are not adequate responses.He believes that restoring the competitiveness of lights and the establishment of a genuine industrial policy are the best weapons against the adverse effects of globalization.

The Sixth Republic

For ten years, Arnaud Montebourg defends a change of constitution. The Sixth Republic is calling for that allocate roles between "a president who will, a government with the fullness of his powers and a Parliament with enhanced supervisory powers including the opposition." It would be a strong focus on popular initiative referendum, would end the impunity of the head of the state and would prohibit multiple directorships.

Martine Aubry and Francois Hollande do not return to their account the change of Republic but are in favor of a "modernization of political life." The mayor of Lille is to prohibit multiple directorships.She wants to introduce more proportionate in the national and local elections. Francois Hollande said that he will "put the institutions on their feet" "with a president who presides over a government that governs, a parliament that legislates." PS The project also plans to set up popular referendums.

Finally, proposals for Arnaud Montebourg are certainly more radical but not so far removed from those of Martine Aubry and Francois Hollande. "Do not overestimate the differences between Arnaud Montebourg and the other candidates. Arnaud used a more aggressive tone, but it is not necessarily become global justice. The measures that are advocated in the socialist family," concludes Olivier Ferrand, president of Terra Nova, the think tank of the PS.

Representatives of small and medium sized French companies remain alert to changes in credit conditions, they warned Tuesday after a meeting with banks Tuesday to the Ministry of Economy.

The fear of a credit crunch, a danger often referred to as the English "credit crunch" has increased in recent days against a backdrop of falling bank stocks on the stock market and worsening crisis of sovereign debt.

"We are very vigilant," he told Reuters Etienne Bernard, chairman of SOHO-SME-ETI MEDEF, the French employers' organization first.

"In early September, we find, by clear feedback from the field, as banks ask lots of questions" for entrepreneurs, including their need or not unused credit lines, he added. "This questioning creates some anxiety."

Indicators presented by the Bank of France show a healthy distribution of credit, at least until July. But more recent data are not yet available.

"An annual growth of credit to SMEs beyond 4.8% was recorded in July," the Ministry of Economy in a statement."During this period, compared with the rest of the euro area, growth in credit to all businesses in France is much more dynamic (+4.5% against +1.6%)."

At the meeting, the Secretary of State for Small Business, "Frederic Lefebvre asked the representatives of banks to the financing of small and micro businesses a top priority," the statement said.

French Banking Federation (FBF) has ensured that banks were heavily involved with businesses.

"French banks have confirmed that they were doing their outreach, especially for SOHO / SME, a priority.They are determined to continue to provide funding for the economy as they have always done, "says the FBF in a statement.

The professional craft Union (UPA) has meanwhile welcomed the government intervention "to prevent a drying up of credit in small amounts."

She said in a statement that "loans of small amounts, often less than 25,000 euros, are the fuel companies."

"Remove that access to credit would sacrifice many companies on the altar of the crisis. A suicidal act when we know that crafts and local shops are among the sectors that have best weathered the crisis of 2008 and who saved many jobs, "continues the UPA.

Obama says he wants to put 447 billion dollars on the table for the fight against unemployment. Will he able to implement its plan? The proposed measures can they walk? Uncertainties abound. Barack Obama October 31, 2010.

Unemployment remains stuck above 9% in popularity to the lowest since his election … For Barack Obama, the fight for employment is the decisive battle of the last years of his term. He then presented a plan Thursday, the American Jobs Act, which promises to spend 447 billion dollars, 300 billion euros, to create and maintain jobs. And despite a budget deficit and a debt of a magnitude abysmal. Is a financial effort of the same level as the Stimulus Plan of 2009.It was 787 billion over two years while the effects of the new plan should focus on 2012.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, quoted by Bloomberg as he believes could have a greater macroeconomic impact. Additional growth is estimated to be 2 percentage points and a one-point drop in the unemployment rate … provided it is fully implemented. For the first unknown of this plan is whether it will be voted on by the Republicans who have displayed more hostility. Aware of the political balance of power, Barack Obama has also favored measures likely to receive support, as this is tax cuts.He also insisted that Republicans had proposed similar measures.

Priority to the reduction of social charges

Obama can talk about his plan as a shock, its revenues have nothing very original. More than half of the plan – $ 240 billion – be used to offset reductions in payroll taxes owed to Social Security.

Employees could then see their 2012 employee contribution rates to 3.1% instead of the already improved rate of 4.2% they receive until the end of the year. Knowing that the standard rate of 6.2%. The objective here is to stimulate activity through consumption by giving purchasing power to them.The problem is that Americans are heavily indebted and some economists fear that some of this money ($ 175 billion, averaging $ 1,500 per family) rather don not in bank vaults in stores .

Companies are not forgotten. Obama breaks new ground even in the matter by proposing to cut the same way the employer contribution rate by half to 3.1%. A reduction that would apply within the first 5 million in payroll to benefit small first. All for a $ 65 billion.

Last "gift", also for companies: a total exemption from social security in case of creation of positions or salary increases. And within the limits of an increase of $ 50 million in payroll.So this is a direct incentive to job creation or wage increases (5 billion).

In total, the White House believes that such measures could create 50,000 jobs per month. Or 600,000 over the year 2012. That compares with the average loss of 35,000 jobs per month in the last quarter. But the New York Times also points out that companies must be able to offer more than 100,000 jobs each month just to cope with population growth

New aid to the unemployed

Here the opposition of Republican likely to be greatest. The White House wants to implement because it boasts as "the most innovative reform of unemployment insurance for 40 years."It aims to maintain the payment of allowances for part-time employees, trainees or unemployed entrepreneurs and set up a special tax credit for hiring long-term unemployed. Added to a fund to finance initiatives for the return to work in the direction of the unskilled and disadvantaged.

$ 140 billion of public investment

These measures Keynesian will involve upgrading transport infrastructure to the tune of $ 50 billion, and the creation of a National Infrastructure Bank. Obama hopes to win in each case the support of elected Republicans who have requested by a line of railway, is a bridge …A strong emphasis on education with the project to upgrade at least 35,000 public schools (30 billion) and freeze up to 280,000 job cuts for teachers, police and fire (at a cost of 35 billion). Not sure that this component easily passes the Cape of Congress.

Finally, two obstacles remain to the effectiveness of the plan of Obama. The funding, first. The U.S. president said he would be fully resolved in the process of reducing the long-term debt of some 1.5 trillion dollars. Task that was entrusted to a bipartisan committee that must report its findings in November. Barack Obama has promised to unveil his own proposals September 19, in the matter.

Then, the American Jobs Act, even if passed in its entirety, is not the absolute anti-crisis weapon. Its effectiveness will depend upon the strength of the economy.Thus the decline of social enterprises, a key measure, may well be theoretically effective, it is not enough to convince an employer to hire if the demand is not there. But the latest indicators in this regard are contradictory. For if consumer spending rebounded in July, trust her, fell in August to its lowest level since November 2008.

European shares ended Thursday in a disorganized, caught between the temptation to take profits after three sessions of consecutive increase and the positive impact of a U.S. ISM index better than expected, which eased fears of an entry in recession.

However, investors prefer to remain cautious on the eve of the release of U.S. employment figures for the month of August, a critical indicator, including the decision of the Federal Reserve to support the economy.

The CAC 40 index closed up 0.28% to 3265.83 points after fluctuating in both directions.Between 19 and 31 August, the benchmark index in Paris gained almost 8%.

Other major European markets, London was up 0.45% and Milan took 0.69%, while Frankfurt lost 0.94%. The pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 index ended up on its side up 0.16%.

"At first reading, the figure of the ISM has reassured the markets. However, some components are still of concern. In all, the deterioration of the U.S. economy is not as strong as feared by consensus a very bearish," said Arnaud Cayla, managing director at Barclays Wealth Managers France."However, the activity remains fragile," he adds.

"The market now could still bet on further steps at the next monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve, a feeling reinforced by the expansion confirmed inflationary pressures," he says.

Defensive stocks supported the rating.Repsol has made 2.44% to 20.560 euros, Deutsche Telekom 2.19% to 8.999 euros and Sanofi 1.5% 51.420 euros.

European banks have ended on a note with an irregular European sector index up by 0.99%.

In Paris, Crédit Agricole (-2.08% to 6.679 euros) suffered the second largest drop in the CAC 40.

The euro lost ground, trading at 1.42989 / 90 dollars, against 1.4374 the previous day about the end of the day.

Illustration of investor caution, the yield on German government bonds to 10 years is down to about 2.14% against 2.22% over the closing Wednesday.

The British advertising group Aegis is confident about its future after announcing strong organic growth in the first half and confirmed an annual perspective is now reserved.

The group, which in July sold its market research arm Synovate to French Ipsos for 525 million pounds (595 million), recorded organic growth of its turnover by 7.3% driven by strong performances, particularly in North America.

The major advertising groups showed solid performance in 2010 and 2011, as companies, providing most of the time their advertising budgets on an annual basis, continued to invest despite the turbulence in financial markets to protect their market share .

However, WPP and Publicis competitors have both warned that the year 2012 could prove more elusive.

Aegis has maintained an organic growth target for 2011 at least equivalent to 5.8% observed in 2010 and also provides for improved operating margins.

The sale of Synovate, which should ultimately bring 505 million pounds according to analysts, will also be fastened to the end of September, said the group, which plans to donate 200 million pounds to shareholders.

"In the medium term visibility is still relatively limited because the macroeconomic uncertainty remains," said general manager Jerry Buhlmann group."However, we remain positive for the future of Aegis, to be more concentrated (on its core business), especially with regard to the strength of our activities over the past 18 months."

The title gained 2.14% to 0830 GMT, valuing the company at about 1.8 billion pounds.

Markets in Asia tumbled Monday, despite the proliferation of policy statements and central bankers from the lowering of the sovereign rating of the United States by Standard & Poor's.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei index ended down 2.18% and the broader Topix index lost 2.26%. Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said that market confidence in the dollar and Treasuries had not decreased, suggesting that Tokyo did not intend to dispose of its huge investments in U.S. debt.

In Seoul, the Kospi index fell 3.82%, after falling more than 7% in session.The Korean authorities, in a statement, ensured that the G20 countries were ready to act to ensure stability and liquidity of financial markets.

At the end of these places, the Hang Seng Index gave up 3.8% at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the composite index of Shanghai Stock Exchange fell by 3.56%. Volumes were 20% below their levels in Hong Kong Friday.Cyclical stocks were among the most attacked.

At the same time, the Moscow stock exchange opened in turn and started the session at its lowest in a year, down 3.3%.

In Europe, the index contracts lost about 2%, as well as the "future" on Wall Street indices.

In this context, the gold all-time records above $ 1,700 an ounce and was trading around 1,713 dollars an ounce or so.

Under pressure, the dollar fell in a time and 0.7500 Swiss franc was trading around 1.4365 per euro.

The oil market, crude prices pplus lost $ 3 a barrel to 83.35 dollars for U.S. crude and 106 dollars for Brent.

"There are obviously some places to hide, and these places are doing very well.Gold took the opportunity because no central bank sells only ", says Greg Gibbs, an analyst at RBS in Sydney.

Just before the opening of Asian markets, finance ministers and central bankers from the G7 pledged to take "all necessary measures" to support financial stability and growth, expressing determination to act whenever necessary. The European Central Bank has announced its next "actively implement" the bond buyback program to try to stem the debt crisis in the eurozone.ECB has not specified which countries will be affected by these acquisitions but suggests it could be from Spain and Italy.

Markets now expect the monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve on Tuesday that they hope new efforts to revive the U.S. economy mechanical.

"Investors are wondering whether the Fed will open the door to more accommodative measures, such as quantitative easing. If this is not the case, investors express their disappointment by continuing to sell," Toshio Sumitani provides analyst at Tokai Tokyo.

Until the EFSF takes over, the European Central Bank resumed its purchases of government bonds of countries in the Eurozone in trouble in the markets. It will also help the banks, said Thursday its president Jean-Claude Trichet. The European Central Bank resumed its operations in the bond market, said its president Thursday, August 4, French Jean-Claude Trichet. Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the ECB decided to keep its key rate at 1.25%.

The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to take firm action to try to extinguish the fires of the debt crisis in the euro zone, notably by taking over its operations in the bond market, announced Thursday, August 4 President Jean-Claude Trichet .The Governing Council of the ECB decided "overwhelmingly" to make new purchases, he said at a press conference in Frankfurt (west), head of the institution. Paris market sources have confirmed to AFP that the ECB intervened on Thursday afternoon. Previously, Mr. Trichet had said he had "never said" that the program had been "interrupted".

The ECB did not, however, used for more than four months. The extent of intervention will not be known until Monday at the earliest, the ECB communicates only once a week about it. It is even possible that the intervention of this Thursday is not yet included in the figures for Monday, because of delays in compensation. Mr.Trichet added, however, he wanted the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), set up to lend to troubled states of the euro zone, the relay fast as was decided at a summit in Brussels on 21 July. "What we expect is that this fund is to be effective so that we can not intervene," he said.

The ECB will also help banks by providing them with additional liquidity. An exceptional operation six months on loan to banks will be launched on August 9 with a maturity at March 11, 2012, in response to "renewed tensions in certain markets in the euro area," said Mr Trichet. The ECB had already conducted such operations in response to the global crisis, but these operations had ceased in late 2009.The benefit of unlimited credit to banks, fixed rate for periods up to three months, is itself extended by a quarter, until January 2012, said Trichet. "We think it's appropriate under current conditions, to restore the proper functioning of all markets," said the president of the ECB, which also decided to keep its key rate to 1.5%.

EADS confirmed Friday its objectives, driven by the commercial success of its subsidiary Airbus which he now expected more than 1,000 gross orders this year.

The European Group on Aerospace and Defense, Airbus' parent company, reiterated a target for 2011 growth in turnover and operating profit (EBIT) before special items compared to the stable level of 1.3 billion euros 2010, again on the basis of one euro to 1.35 dollar.

In the second quarter, EADS generated adjusted EBIT of 371 million euros in the second quarter, net profit of 121 million and a turnover of 12.082 million.

Analysts on average expected for the second quarter an adjusted EBIT of 317 million euros, a net profit of 160 million and a turnover of 11.598 million, according to the Thomson Reuters consensus I / B / E / S.

Airbus reached an adjusted EBIT of 87 million euros and a turnover of 8.299 million, respectively, against 144 million and 7.986 million expected.

Still no agreement between the White House and Congress on raising the legal limit of debt. The prospect of a failure to pay the United States is increasing. At the risk of creating a shock wave in global finance. View of the Capitol, seat of Congress. At 15 days of the deadline of August 2, elected Democrats and Republicans do not agree on conditions for raising the U.S. debt ceiling.

In Washington, the pressure is increasing on the White House and Congress. For two weeks the deadline of August 2 to raise the legal ceiling of U.S. debt, the elected Democrats and Republicans still can not agree on the terms of such recovery. Result: the rating agencies threaten to impair the sovereign rating of the world's largest economy.

Why is it necessary to raise the ceiling of U.S. debt? Benchmarks

The U.S. public debt is around 100% of GDP, the deficit to 10%. In comparison, the French debt amounts to 2.5 trillion euros, or 85% of GDP, the deficit and 7%.

The debt ceiling is a maximum level of indebtedness, level regularly adjusted by the U.S. Congress since 1917. He was raised ten times over the past decade. Last time, in 2010, this ceiling was increased to 14 297 billion. Yet the level of U.S. debt has reached this limit in May. It is bypassed, since only by technical adjustments Treasury. But beyond the August 2, if the legal limit of debt is not raised, the U.S. will no longer honor their commitments.

What happens if the debt ceiling is not raised?

Specifically, the U.S. will not lift the markets the amounts needed to pay interest and renewal of their debt. The state must pay U.S. $ 30 billion monthly interest on the debt. They also need to refinance in August more than 500 billion dollars of debt. So the U.S. is lacking on some of their deadlines, or they sacrifice other spending. The first hypothesis would create such a shock wave throughout the international financial system that seems to be excluded. To honor the interests of their debt, the U.S. will have to cut spending. President Barack Obama spoke a non-payment of pensions for retirees and veterans – the state must pay $ 23 billion on Aug. 3 to Social Security for these payments.The U.S. Treasury announced meanwhile that the state must cut spending by 40% overnight, which is equivalent to 1.5 trillion dollars, or 10% of GDP.

Why Republicans and Democrats do not reach an agreement?

Democrats and Republicans oppose the plan to reduce the budget deficit, which conditions any agreement on raising the debt ceiling. Barack Obama is committed to savings. He even agreed to cut heavily in social spending, including health insurance. But it requires an offsetting increase in taxes for the wealthiest households and businesses. What the Republicans, including elected officials from the ultra-conservative movement of the "tea party" categorically refuse. They advocate on their side a more drastic reduction of public spending, the ceiling of 18% of GDP against 24% today.

A compromise is still possible?

The White House thought Sunday still possible to find a compromise with Congress to raise the debt ceiling of the federal state. "Things have progressed in recent days," assured Jacob Lew, director of the Office of Budget, one of the negotiators of Barack Obama. "The American political life is punctuated by psychodrama between the White House and Congress, said Christophe Desta, Deputy Director of the CEPII. It is possible that both sides reach an agreement on August 1 at midnight." Especially there is a backup solution, proposed by Republican Senator Mitch McConnell: a legislative maneuver allows the president to veto the congressional vote against raising the debt ceiling. This veto can be overturned as a two-thirds majority, the Republicans have not.Barack Obama might as well take it upon himself to raise the debt ceiling to 2.5 trillion dollars by 2012. It's better than nothing.

The "AAA" of the United States is threatened?

Yes, even if the debt ceiling is raised. Moody's and Standard & Poor's, which put the U.S. debt under pressure last week, have both said they expected a "credible plan" to reduce the deficit and debt in the medium term. S & P expects a budget saving of 4000 to 5,000,000,000,000 dollars over the next ten years. Now both agencies are skeptical of the likelihood of an agreement on a plan of fiscal consolidation between the government and the Congress in 2012, the year in the U.S. presidential election. The possibility that the United States lose their triple A is not excluded. This would have potentially disastrous effects.Not so much for the United States, which will continue to support the markets without difficulty, although it should be at a higher cost, but for the financial system as a whole. The U.S. Treasury is in fact the investment vehicle most prevalent in the world. The total amount of "Treasures" held by institutional investors (governments, central banks, banks, insurers, etc..) Reached $ 13.6 billion in late 2010. The loss of "AAA", indicating that the U.S. debt is no longer safe, would lead to a devaluation of the value of Treasury bonds, so the asset portfolio of most international financial players.

Finance ministers of the euro area Saturday released a tranche of aid to Greece to 12 billion euros, thus avoiding in Athens to default on its debt in the coming weeks.

In a statement issued after a conference call of the Eurogroup, the ministers also said they continued their discussions on the establishment of a second aid plan for Greece, which could be a similar size to the forefront of 110 billion euros agreed in May 2010.

"The Ministers welcomed the progress made by the Greek authorities (…) In particular, the Ministers noted with satisfaction the adoption by the Greek parliament of key legislation relating to tax strategy and privatization, "it is written in the text.

"Therefore, the ministers endorsed the report of the Commission and the signing of the MoU," can we still read.

The payment of this tranche of aid, the IMF has yet to formally approve, was conditioned to a new austerity program of about 28 billion euros that the Greek Parliament adopted Thursday.

The sixth installment of aid, from 8 billion euros, must now be paid during September but the Europeans hope to tie up by July 11 the second aid plan, which they hope to involve banks, insurance companies and private investors.

"Consultations with the Greek creditors are underway to define the modalities of voluntary participation from the private sector in order to achieve a drastic reduction in annual funding requirements of Greece, while avoiding selective default" the statement said.