The Parisian house prices are falling for the first time since 2009. This trend can it last? The responses of Sébastien de Lafond, President of MeilleursAgents.com. Paris Real Estate, Second District, Point Trigano.
After the delirium, appeasement. The Paris property prices are going down, all professionals are unanimous, including notaries. The period October 2011 to January 2012, the price per m2 of housing in Paris and has declined slightly, to 8340 euros/m2, instead of 8370 euros previously. This represents a 0.3% decrease. The capital rappoche so the trend throughout the Paris region (-0.6% over the same period). Certainly, the decline is limited, but it denotes with previous years of sharp increase. The notice of Sébastien de Lafond is President of MeilleursAgents.com.
What do we see on the Paris market?
The Paris market has long been an exception to the French property market. If you look at the figures for previous years, between the third quarter 2009 and third quarter 2010, prices rose by 13.8% in Paris. And in 2011, the increase was 15% for old apartments. Result, the price per m2 in Paris reached 8,344 euros. The left bank has skyrocketed. First explanation: the exploding demand, strong excess relative to supply, fueled by several factors: historically low interest rates, a preference for stone instead of the stock market, investors have never been as many ( 26% of buyers, against 16% in all of France). All in a context of shortage of housing. In Ile-de-France, we need 70,000 homes a year to meet demand, then we do not built for that half hour. Another factor increase: foreign demand, which influences prices in many districts, the first in the eighth arrondissement, the 16th-but also and especially on certain types of property high-end or central ashore. This is a customer with high purchasing power, thus likely to distort the market structure high-end. Still, foreigners account for barely 5% of buyers.
The price on the Paris market have they peaked?
Today, no doubt, this market is cooling and has been since last July. The last six months, prices in Paris intra muros lost 3.5%, even lower in the inner suburbs and it is around 5% in the outer suburbs. Similarly, the transaction time is 50 days in Paris twice a year ago and 40 to 80 days in the Ile-de-France. In nine out of 10 districts, prices declined in the fourth quarter of 2011 versus the third quarter of that year. The volume of property transactions fell 15% in Paris and 20% in small and large crown.
How can we explain this decline?
On the one hand, we lost 30% of buyers from last year. First reason: the prices in Paris and the Ile de France have reached very high levels. For proof, from June 2009 to June 2011, they increased by 29%. Given this rise, many buyers say "stop". Another reason to be bullish: the banks are much more restrictive in terms of access to mortgages since the Greek crisis. Now, exit the small arrangements if you are on probation or if you have a low intake. Have a permanent and present a contribution of 5 to 10% is the rule in any bank. Moreover, the monthly credit shall not exceed 1/3 of disposable income of the borrower. Finally, we lost about 10% of buyers due to the suppression of PTZ + in the former, which was included last year in 40% of real estate transactions in the former.
On the other hand, the decline was due to the 20% of sellers and less. The sale is generally followed by a purchase. But in an economic context is not conducive to going into debt over twenty years, coupled with a fear of the future and an uncertain economy, people are more cautious. Finally, the election deadline pushes the real estate project.
The decline in the market Ile can it continue?
We announce a drop of about 5% to 10% of Paris and the Ile-de-France at least until June But this drop will not be sustainable if rates continue to decline as is currently the case in most banks. Because if interest rates fall, prices rise. However, if they increase, prices are revised downwards. This hypothesis is highly possible with the economic crisis in Spain today. The rate of OAT, (the rate at which borrows France over 10 years) may increase. However, if lending rates rise by 1%, prices could fall by 15%.
Beyond these predictions, the basic problem remains, we have a deficit of housing particularly marked in the Paris region market. Given migration, birth rates, etc.., Demand for the stone is too large to attend a substantial fall in prices in Paris, in small and large crown. The new housing shortage keeps prices. It is for this reason that the drop is, and will only be on if the new housing construction remains at this level. Buyers should not expect a substantial fall in prices. Today the market is experiencing a slight decline. This is a good time to buy in Ile-de-France.
But who can still buy in Paris?
In the capital, buyers under 30 have almost disappeared but the secondo-time buyers drive the market. Those buy for resale and are immunized against rising prices. We defined three categories of buyers. High-income couples, 30 to 40 years, may in turn seek apartments from 60 to 100 m2 through debt of 20 to 25 years. The secondly-time buyers who bought there over five years and can make a nice capital gain are now the most dynamic part of the application. But they are experiencing shortages of goods. Finally come the investors with a medium-to long term.