The series of elections on Sunday to test the austerity policies in the euro area opens a new period of political uncertainty and risk of reviving the sovereign debt crisis, reinforcing the need a growth initiative whose principle has gradually established itself.
The victory of the socialist candidate for the French presidential election of Nicolas Sarkozy is the eleventh leader of the ousted euro area since the outbreak of the crisis and the implementation of austerity policies imposed by Germany and aimed at the curb.
"I'm sure in many European countries Caa was a relief, a hope, that finally the idea of austerity could no longer be inevitable "said Francois Hollande, in a speech at his election night.
"That's what I say as soon as possible to our European partners and first in Germany," he said.
Francois Hollande has been negotiating a pact designed to complement growth of the fiscal pact, signed in early March by 25 of the 27 countries of the European Union, a of his campaign themes.
His election of Francois Hollande with 51.6% against 48.4% in the outgoing President Nicolas Sarkozy, argued that German Chancellor Angela Merkel does not lift all the political uncertainties that will last at least until the legislatures of 10 and 17 June
In Greece, the results of parliamentary elections confirm the expected scenario of a sharp fall in two main formations.
The conservative New Democracy and PASOK Socialists, who run alternately in decades, pay their support for draconian austerity measures taken since early 2010 in exchange for international financial assistance.
SETBACKS FOR MERKEL
The breakthrough of the Coalition of the Radical Left hostile to the austerity and the entry of small parties in parliament, whose far-right "Golden Dawn", will make very difficult to find a majority and likely to fuel speculation about a renegotiation of the latest bailout plan or to an output of Greece in the euro area.
Fears deemed excessive by the economists of the investment bank Barclays Capital who point out that the Greeks remain overwhelmingly favorable to the euro but do not rule out political instability that would require the new elections later this year.
"The risk is that non-European investors found a mistrust vis-à-vis the euro area rather marked," however, warns Philippe Waechter, an economist of the company ; Management Natixis Asset Management.
In Germany, the Christian Democrats (CDU) suffered another setback in losing the electoral state of Schleswig-Holstein region where the formation of Merkel saved her worst score since 1950.
The vote next week in the Land of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany's most populous nation, will also be closely watched to assess the popularity of the policy conducted by the Chancellor and the accession of German voters to European solidarity.
The partial municipal Italy, which will continue Monday, are a test on more than nine million voters, or 20% of the electorate, the government expert Mario Monti, again full cure austerity.
The first election of the post-Berlusconi give the measure of the distrust of the Italians against their political leaders to a year of parliamentary elections in May 2013.
The electoral cycle in May will end with the Irish referendum on the new European fiscal pact, already ratified by three EU countries including Greece.
SHORT RESPITE
After a short respite allowed by the injection of more than one.000 billion euros of liquidity between late December and early March by the European Central Bank, tensions on sovereign debt are quickly reappeared.
Investors are worried because of the growing political and social pressure against austerity plans which they fear above all that they do not favor a relapse into recession economies most weakened by the crisis and with them the entire euro area.
If Spain, officially fallen into recession in first quarter, is in sight, the gap between the wages offered by the sovereign debt of Germany and that of almost all ; other European countries has increased in recent weeks.
European policymakers have however begun to recognize and formally accept a lesson of economic history that no country wants out of a debt crisis by focusing only on austerity, this strategy has always resulted in either a depression or a default.
From the European Council in January and more at the March, the EU officials had stressed the need to complement fiscal consolidation by "measures determined ; are to stimulate growth and employment ".
They had then discussed several tracks, as a better mobilization of structural funds, a means of strengthening the European Investment Bank or the possibility of bond issues at European level in order facilitate private financing of major projects, referring to the definition of terms in June of that support growth.
The willingness of the new French president throughout his campaign to promote European growth initiative in this context had met with a favorable in both countries weakened ; s like Italy and the European Commission but also in Germany and even the European Central Bank (ECB).
Its intention to renegotiate the pact budget has however met with strong opposition, especially from Germany who does not intend to return to the priority given to fiscal consolidation.
His call for a more active role for the ECB to stimulate the economy through lower interest rates or direct loans to countries in difficulty also faces hostility from Germany.
POSSIBLE COMPROMISE
Even before his election, Francois Hollande, however inflected speech suggesting that the renegotiation of the pact would be part of budget negotiations with its European partners.
The president-elect has also been careful to avoid referring to possible Eurobonds, of which Germany does not want to hear because they would constitute a first step towards pooling of European public debt that Berlin rejects.
Francois Hollande now prefers to discuss project requirements, an expression consistent with that used by other heads of state and government of the EU.
A compromise is therefore possible, but the size and financing of a possible growth strategy remain unclear.
A mounting tensions on sovereign debt would leave the ECB in the immediate front line but also exacerbate the pressure for a stronger commitment on his part to alleviate the costs of funding all States in the euro area and encourage growth.
If he felt that the euro area needed a "Growth Pact", the ECB president also stressed that support for the activity should not be detrimental fiscal discipline.
"Recent comments by Mario Draghi, defending the idea of a growth strategy implemented by European governments is primarily a way to avoid a debate on the mandate of the ECB could be refocused on growth, "say the economists and Exane BNP Paribas.