News – Business & Economi

The decline in unemployment for the second consecutive quarter to hope that France moved into a sustained decrease, said Thursday Economy Minister Christine Lagarde.

The unemployment rate as defined in International Labour Office has declined to 9.3% and 9.7% in France with overseas in the second quarter against 9.5% and 9.9% in the first, announced Thursday INSEE.

"This is good news, especially now that a new repeating itself," said Christine Lagarde told Reuters.

"When is two consecutive quarters, there is reason to believe that not only stabilized but unemployment is perhaps past the right side of stabilization.People come, hopefully in permanently reducing unemployment. "

In a previous interview after the announcement of a decline in the number of jobseekers in Class A in July, 25 August Christine Lagarde had referred to "stabilize" trend that is becoming.

Asked to say at what level of growth in France was able to create lasting jobs, the economy minister said: "It is almost certain it was only 2% of net job creation sustainable, but look at the current period, to 1.4% pace of growth was the net creation of jobs.

"The French economy has created about 60.000 new jobs since the beginning of 2010 when it evolves at a rate of 1.4 to 1.5% growth, so somewhere between 1.5% and 2%, the French economy created jobs .

"What is important is that we can maintain this trend of declining unemployment and net creation of jobs," she added.

The government forecasts economic growth of 1.4% this year and 2.0% in 2011.

While the earnings season ends business in the United States, optimism about the earnings outlook for the third quarter gradually eroded as investors fearing that the weak demand reflected by the indicators Macroeconomic weigh on sales and margins of listed companies.

While only a handful of companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 has not yet submitted its accounts, the average growth index of profits in the second quarter stood at 38.4% compared to the corresponding period of the Last year, according to data from Thomson Reuters.

Such performance is unlikely to be equaled in the third quarter.The estimates, which are currently still at the level they were in early July, predicting earnings growth of 24.9% over one year.

"It could well be one of the last quarter for which the results are as good as mine.There is already, for example, they slow down or they're to move downward for 2011, "said Pankaj Patel, analyst at Credit Suisse in New York.

If 75% of the S & P 500 have exceeded estimates in the second quarter, compared to an historical average of 62%, many observers believe that profit margins could well have peaked.

Productivity has in fact declined by 0.9% over the same period, suggesting that companies may well find themselves unable to maintain their level of profitability.

ESTIMATES TOO OPTIMISTIC?

The average margin for the S & P 500 was 8.9% in April-June, against 6.2% a year earlier, according to Howard Silverblatt, an analyst at Standard & Poor's.

The disappointing economic indicators published in recent weeks, particularly on the employment front, began to be integrated into the course: the S & P 500 has a 0.7% drop since July 12, the start of the season results .

"There are many headwinds (…) and if you start to take them into account, we see that some numbers may be too optimistic," said Alan Lancz, president of Alan B. Lancz & Associates, an investment consulting firm.

The second part of the earnings season has been worse than the first.Of more than 2,000 U.S. companies announced their accounts, more than 70% have exceeded analysts' estimates during the first half of the period of publication, but this ratio fell to 66% by the end of the season, according to analysts at the company Studies Bespoke Investment Group.

For the third quarter, the estimates should not change much more until early October.

"Unless exceptional economic event (…) a major change in numbers is unlikely" for at least several weeks, Judge John Butters, head of U.S. monitoring results, Thomson Reuters.

The restatement of financial results of listed companies has been a major driver of the rebound in the S & P 500 from the lowest 12 years hit early in March 2009 and since then, the index rose by 58%.

Sanofi-Aventis could make a first offer around $ 70 per share to acquire U.S. biotech Genzyme, analysts said.

Some consider that the French pharmaceutical group may raise its offer to $ 80.

Under cover of anonymity, one analyst said that "70 dollars would be a first offer" and that "at $ 80 it remains a good deal for Sanofi.

Same story for another sector specialist who believes that $ 80 "operation creates value in three years that will follow."

Citigroup, meanwhile, said that Sanofi will likely be the only buyer of American specialist on rare diseases and will pay between 74-77 dollars per share, or 19.7 to 20.5 billion dollars (15.0 to 15 6 billion euros).

Citi analysts consider that "insofar Sanofi may be the only buyer, and that shareholders are aware that Genzyme may fall into the lower half of the range of 50-60 dollars, unless an agreement is not passed the matter will be at 74-77 dollars. "

They add that the French lab could launch a hostile bid if Genzyme resists and present its offer directly to shareholders.

The shareholder Relational Investors, Carl Icahn, who hold respectively 3.8% and 4.9% from Genzyme, could be satisfied with an offer around $ 75 since they bought at 61 and 54 dollars, says Citi.

Sanofi, an agreement would be $ 75 4% accretive in 2011 and 13% in 2013, analysts have calculated the Citi.

At Raymond James, Eric Le Berrigaud doubt that "70 dollars is sufficient.Starting at $ 70, is ready to go up to $ 80, "he notes." And at 80 dollars it is not certain whether all the guarantees of success since c is roughly the level or was action before Genzyme's production problems.

The biotech has enjoyed last year a series of production problems on its sites in the U.S., which continue to weigh on its business.

"SANOFI PREFERRED FINANCIAL LOGIC"

A fourth analyst insists that Sanofi is expected to launch its bid for Genzyme even if it does not create value for the group's objective is to increase its earnings per share.

"For the operation to bring value, it should pay less than $ 70 per share, or about 64 dollars," he says."If Sanofi launches operation beyond, is that the group favors a financial logic in the short to medium term to close down its results and not the logic of value creation."

For him, "the title Genzyme could return to $ 80 after the settlement of industrial problems, but very transient because its treatment of Gaucher's disease could soon be rivaled.

Sources familiar with the case, it said last week that Sanofi intended to send a letter to Genzyme with the terms of its offer.This offer would be like "bear hug", that is to say friendly at first but may become hostile if necessary.

The Board of Directors of Sanofi has authorized a $ 18.7 billion dollars, said last week, sources familiar with the matter. But Sanofi has financial guidelines allowing it to raise its offer, that is to say, to bring more than $ 70 per share, said a source.

The experts, anyway, that Genzyme is a suspect "white knight" to deal with Sanofi.

A spokesman for the Financial Markets Authority said that the French system which requires an initiator to declare his intentions in certain conditions if the rumors do not apply when the target is foreign.In this case, the law of the country in which the target company is applying, "she added.

The action dealt Genzyme Monday up 0.5% to 69.93 dollars in early afternoon on Wall Street. In Paris, the title Sanofi closed at 45.4 euros (1.88%).

Merck reported a quarterly results better than expected thanks to strong demand for its treatment fighting against diabetes, arthritis or AIDS.

Excluding items, profit U.S. lab amounts to 86 cents per share while analysts polled by Thomson Reuters I / B / E / S had forecast 83 cents.

In total, net income fell to 752 million or 24 cents per share.In the second quarter of 2009, it was 1.56 billion or 74 cents a share.

Merck has taken control of his compatriot Schering-Plough in November for $ 41 billion.

For the year, Merck now expects EPS of 3.29 to 3.39 dollars per share, excluding special items, a slight adjustment from its previous forecast of 3.27 to 3.41 dollars.

In pre-market, Merck was down 2.2% to 34.29 dollars.

The World Cup effect past the French household consumption of manufactured goods fell 1.4% in June and fell 0.9% on the entire second quarter, posting INSEE.

The disappointing figures, well below expectations, suggest a decrease in consumption of all households in the second quarter, including services and supply, which would be a first for two years.

Twenty-three economists polled by Reuters predicted an average increase of 0.2% in June, with estimates ranging from -1.8% to +1.0%.Initially announced at 0.7%, May's increase was revised to 0.6% after a decline of -1.4% in April.

Since the beginning of the year, spending on manufactured goods have registered only two months of increases in March and May The decrease of 0.9% over the entire second quarter followed a 1.9% decline in first.

"The consumer was dynamic in the last quarter of 2009 was considerably weakened when it has always been the mainstay of the business in France.It is a real concern, "said Dominique Barbet, economist at BNP Paribas.

In June, it is the consumer electronics and clothing that have seen their sales drop, taking over auto sales down sharply in early years after the decline of the "scrappage".

After a jump of 6.4% in May, largely due to purchases of televisions before the World Cup in South Africa, the post of home furnishings fell 3.6% in June, biggest drop since November 2002.

For the sole property of consumer electronics, the decline was 3.7% after a surge of 12.4% in May

DROP IN THE CAR Dyked

Spending on textiles and leather have in turn fell 5.0% in anticipation of summer sales that began June 30, five days later than in 2009, but this schedule gives hope for a rebound in July.

For the quarter, the home furnishings rose 3.0% but textiles and leather down 2.8%.

The decline in car sales for its part was contained in June (0.0% after -0.3% in May and -9.2% in April) but the decline reached 8.4% in the quarter, after already a fall of 11.5% in the first quarter.

The 0.9% decline in spending on manufactured goods in the second quarter fears of a decline in overall consumption, for the first time since the second quarter of 2008 when it fell by 0.1%, said Dominique Barbet.

Purchases of manufactured goods account for about one quarter of total household consumption of goods and services, which is much less volatile statistics and published quarterly in the national accounts framework.

In the first quarter, it had stagnated (0.0%), lower than 1.9% of purchases of manufactured goods was offset by an increase in individual consumption of energy.

INSEE, in his memo on the economy published in June, sees yet remain stalled in the second quarter before a rise of 0.3% in the next two quarters.

"The stabilization of consumer sentiment was announced yesterday is quite encouraging, but the outlook remains weak and not with this level of consumption we can expect 1.5% or 2.0% growth," observes the economist of BNP Paribas.

"Household consumption in manufactured goods grows with a horizontal trend since the first half of 2007, although movements in the car drove the second half of 2009," said Philippe Waechter, director of economic research at Natixis Asset Management.

"In relation to a consumer confidence still low, reflecting concerns about jobs and taxes, we can not imagine a rebound coming and it will penalize significantly the growth momentum in the second half."

Marc Touati, Associate Director of Global Equities

This topic is more socially and economically. In the current crisis, it is even very controversial, very "dangerous". We must therefore take tweezers in the formulation of the analysis to avoid offending the spell …

I. The model of solidarity to the French: the world's best

Originally the solidarity model, also called French social model may appear as the best in the world. Its basic principle is: high public spending and high tax burdens, but in exchange, through redistribution, greater solidarity and hence less inequality, less unemployment, less poverty and more comfort- be economic.

II.This model of solidarity no longer works

Sadly, the last ten years, this model is fraying, as far as public spending increases more and more (56% of French GDP in 2009), the tax burden is among the highest in the world. Despite this extravagant strategy, growth, structural decline, unemployment is around 10% sustainable, poverty rate increases (14% of French people living below the poverty line), including the widening inequalities in income and health and funding of the retirement pay is more assured. So the French model of solidarity is more effective.

Conclusion: how to find a more effective model

This is where the controversy settled: that it must also increase public spending and taxes.If this solution is certainly easier, it is not credible: it no longer works for 20 years and is a runaway. We must therefore stop veiling the face: the only way to make solidarity in France resides in the ability of the latter to the high growth. To achieve this, we must reduce the tax burden for all, make it as fairer, while lowering the inefficient public spending, including operating expenses.

Jean Paul Betbeze, director of studies of the Credit Agricole

Introduction: The word solidarity is one of the most important part of our vocabulary, one of the most sensitive too, because it is at the crossroads between economic and social. He asked how "to society", that is to say, how to combine growth, efficiency, distribution, justice.The issue of solidarity is today more acute because the growth is not at the rendezvous. This leads to questions about growth (innovation, the company …) and the terms of the distribution of wealth, with the idea that certain expenses, sometimes called Solidarity, were too high and / or have not contributed to growth, as might have been expected.

I. The French social model, an exception

Solidarity meeting in fact a set of situations. For one third of expenditure, are shocks that have affected people, health first, another third are economic shocks, mainly unemployment and its consequences for a third and third is the evolution costs associated with aging. Shock people, economic shock and the shock of aging are the sources of expenditure solidarity.It is necessary to study their relevance, legitimacy and, where possible, their effectiveness. Looking in effect say that young people can not but be struck by the solidarity they restricted themselves to considering. The family, themselves and their friends and cronies. Altogether, they and their entourage. This sends the idea, positively, that the best solidarity begins at home and his family (training, job search and lifestyle), but also that state support, social activities are increasingly counted in First the conditions of retirement and old age support. Truth and realism.

II. There can be no solidarity without growth

So we must find ways to live together solidarity and growth, after some excesses were committed and at the inability to continue as before.It can therefore be, in any event, solidarity without legitimacy, without transparency, without verification. That is no explanation for it, without penalty to the excesses or misrepresentation and – increasingly – without education, training, to avoid any shocks. Economic solidarity corresponds to the current difficulties of the job. Unemployment is the brand, but also retirement (since the nonworking are partly taken into account). But support to individual entrepreneurs (with tax benefits) are also a de facto solidarity. A total of solidarity that we measure is often posterior to the problem, it must be proactive. It must be less than a correction, compensation of a preparation: training throughout life support mobility.Solidarity in the event of sickness is also essential, but it can not avoid the growing support in people themselves. Lifestyle, sports, medical conditions are independent of a reduction of medical risk and provide an old age happier, longer and less dependent on solidarity.

Conclusion: Overall, we must squarely address the solidarity at the intersection of economics and welfare, by making clearer the economy (transparency, fairness, efficiency), the general benefit of society.

European shares ended Friday in a disorganized but the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index displays eighth consecutive day of gains.

The Paris Bourse closed on a very slight increase from 0.11% to 3687.21 points on Friday, again its eighth consecutive increase, and shows a gain of 3.770% for the week. In ten days, the CAC 40 bounced 10%.

The index of key European values close to him as a fourth consecutive week of gains, with a gain of 2.53% in five meetings, in a context of a rebound in world stock markets.

The MSCI World Index shows indeed ninth consecutive day of gains.Investors are showing some renewed risk appetite, encouraged by the successful auction of debt on the eve of Spanish and French and European Union decision to extend the "stress tests" to European industry as a whole.

As for European values, the bank has supported the ongoing titles Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and UBS gaining 1.72% and 6.06%.

The title has sold BP 0.63%, after Moody's lowered by three levels of the credit rating of the oil company, which also seek to borrow seven billion dollars to seven banks.

Rising unemployment in France in February was weaker than in January, according to Economy Minister Christine Lagarde.

"In February it increased less than in January," she said on RMC and BFM TV a few hours of the publication of statistics.

"Unemployment will rise very slightly.I note a stabilization. "

In January, the number of jobseekers in category A had increased by 19,500 to 2,664,600, a monthly increase of 0.7%, while it remained stable in December.

By adding job seekers engaged in a Pool (Class B and C) was higher than 15,900 persons or 0.4%.

Figures for February will be published at 18:00 by the Ministry of Economy and employment center.

The number of jobseekers registered in category A increased 418,000 over the whole of 2009, an increase of 18.7% over the year.

Employment center expects a net reduction this year but the figure would further increase of 94,000, according to its forecast released Tuesday.

The number of unemployed in category A, ie actively seeking employment and engaging in any activity, then decrease of 38,000 in 2011.

The unemployment rate in the direction of the International Labor was 9.6% at the end of the fourth quarter of 2009 in metropolitan France and the center Employment sees 9.8% at end 2010, before a decline to 9.6% in 2011.

INSEE will announce Thursday its own forecasts for the unemployment rate.