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Obama says he wants to put 447 billion dollars on the table for the fight against unemployment. Will he able to implement its plan? The proposed measures can they walk? Uncertainties abound. Barack Obama October 31, 2010.

Unemployment remains stuck above 9% in popularity to the lowest since his election … For Barack Obama, the fight for employment is the decisive battle of the last years of his term. He then presented a plan Thursday, the American Jobs Act, which promises to spend 447 billion dollars, 300 billion euros, to create and maintain jobs. And despite a budget deficit and a debt of a magnitude abysmal. Is a financial effort of the same level as the Stimulus Plan of 2009.It was 787 billion over two years while the effects of the new plan should focus on 2012.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, quoted by Bloomberg as he believes could have a greater macroeconomic impact. Additional growth is estimated to be 2 percentage points and a one-point drop in the unemployment rate … provided it is fully implemented. For the first unknown of this plan is whether it will be voted on by the Republicans who have displayed more hostility. Aware of the political balance of power, Barack Obama has also favored measures likely to receive support, as this is tax cuts.He also insisted that Republicans had proposed similar measures.

Priority to the reduction of social charges

Obama can talk about his plan as a shock, its revenues have nothing very original. More than half of the plan – $ 240 billion – be used to offset reductions in payroll taxes owed to Social Security.

Employees could then see their 2012 employee contribution rates to 3.1% instead of the already improved rate of 4.2% they receive until the end of the year. Knowing that the standard rate of 6.2%. The objective here is to stimulate activity through consumption by giving purchasing power to them.The problem is that Americans are heavily indebted and some economists fear that some of this money ($ 175 billion, averaging $ 1,500 per family) rather don not in bank vaults in stores .

Companies are not forgotten. Obama breaks new ground even in the matter by proposing to cut the same way the employer contribution rate by half to 3.1%. A reduction that would apply within the first 5 million in payroll to benefit small first. All for a $ 65 billion.

Last "gift", also for companies: a total exemption from social security in case of creation of positions or salary increases. And within the limits of an increase of $ 50 million in payroll.So this is a direct incentive to job creation or wage increases (5 billion).

In total, the White House believes that such measures could create 50,000 jobs per month. Or 600,000 over the year 2012. That compares with the average loss of 35,000 jobs per month in the last quarter. But the New York Times also points out that companies must be able to offer more than 100,000 jobs each month just to cope with population growth

New aid to the unemployed

Here the opposition of Republican likely to be greatest. The White House wants to implement because it boasts as "the most innovative reform of unemployment insurance for 40 years."It aims to maintain the payment of allowances for part-time employees, trainees or unemployed entrepreneurs and set up a special tax credit for hiring long-term unemployed. Added to a fund to finance initiatives for the return to work in the direction of the unskilled and disadvantaged.

$ 140 billion of public investment

These measures Keynesian will involve upgrading transport infrastructure to the tune of $ 50 billion, and the creation of a National Infrastructure Bank. Obama hopes to win in each case the support of elected Republicans who have requested by a line of railway, is a bridge …A strong emphasis on education with the project to upgrade at least 35,000 public schools (30 billion) and freeze up to 280,000 job cuts for teachers, police and fire (at a cost of 35 billion). Not sure that this component easily passes the Cape of Congress.

Finally, two obstacles remain to the effectiveness of the plan of Obama. The funding, first. The U.S. president said he would be fully resolved in the process of reducing the long-term debt of some 1.5 trillion dollars. Task that was entrusted to a bipartisan committee that must report its findings in November. Barack Obama has promised to unveil his own proposals September 19, in the matter.

Then, the American Jobs Act, even if passed in its entirety, is not the absolute anti-crisis weapon. Its effectiveness will depend upon the strength of the economy.Thus the decline of social enterprises, a key measure, may well be theoretically effective, it is not enough to convince an employer to hire if the demand is not there. But the latest indicators in this regard are contradictory. For if consumer spending rebounded in July, trust her, fell in August to its lowest level since November 2008.

The UMP is considering the possibility of lowering unemployment benefits for top earners. Medef protests. Update on the controversy. The compensation of executives in unemployment in the viewfinder of the UMP. What exactly is the proposal of the UMP?

Speaking of "proposal" is a bit premature. It is rather a reflection outlined by Bruno Le Maire in an interview with L'Express, in the form of question: "Can we keep a system of unemployment benefits among the most generous in the world, especially for executives with high salaries? "asked the Minister of Agriculture, also supports the party platform for 2012. But this idea does not come from nowhere. It was brought by Peter Méhaignerie early years, in an interview with Marc Landre, Le Figaro journalist and host of the blog The Cartoon Network.And quickly put away in the closet.

Why is unemployment compensation cap frames?

Because the government does not know where to save money, and that the financial situation of the UI is poor: 10.5 billion euros of debt accumulated by the end of the year, and a deficit of 2 billion for 2011. Yet some executives, those who earn 11,000 euros a month and can accommodate up to 6000 euros per month. And for two years. The temptation is great to scrounge money from this population, especially as our European neighbors, the limits of compensation are much lower: 1400 in Spain, Germany 2200 or 1000 in Italy, as Marc Landré points.

It would still not a measure of social justice?

Difficult to present it as such … Managers reported more than they cost to unemployment insurance, as confirmed Unedic.Bernard Van Craeynest, the President of the CFE-CGC, for his part said on BFM TV "they account for 30% funding of unemployment insurance and consume roughly 15 or 17%." In fact, they are less affected by unemployment than other occupational groups and the contributions they pay are higher, since these contributions are a fixed percentage of salary and wages are higher. Lower the contribution limit would create a mechanical reduction of these contributions, and crop revenue so the UI, as outlined Laurence Parisot, president of MEDEF, against the proposal. Unless you do not reduce contributions … "It would be discrimination, an analysis of the trade union CFE-CGC. And it would be questionable in court for breach of equality, the principle is that you receive based on what you contribute."

The Tokyo Stock Exchange ended down 1.04% Monday, reaching a closing low of five months, fears of a possible relapse of the global economy overshadowing speculation about a new intervention by Japanese authorities against the yen strong.

The Nikkei lost 91.11 points to 8628.13 points from its lowest level in five months to hit 8656 points on August 9.The Topix, broader, sold 8.85 points (1.18%) to 742.84 points.

"The next goal would be down 8600 points, but we do not see big movements in recent days, investors remain cautious," Judge Nagayuki Yamagishi, strategist at Morgan Stanley Mitsubishi UFJ Securities.

The entire session, the market has been closely monitoring the currency markets to try to detect signs of an intervention of Japanese authorities.

Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said he continued to monitor the movements of foreign exchange and he was ready to take firm action on the markets.

But some investors believe that even in case of intervention, the effects on equity markets, including export values ​​would be short-lived.

"If the government acts unilaterally on the foreign exchange market, the Nikkei goes back about 100 points, but the efforts of Japan alone will not change the fundamentals," Judge Mitsushige Akino, fund manager for Ichiyoshi Investment Management.

Values ​​highly dependent on exports, such as Toyota Motor and Honda Motor ended down respectively 2.46% and 2.54%.

European banks fell Friday to their lowest level stock since April 2009, 29 months ago when the financial crisis was still felt nothing from curb investors' concerns about their short-term financing.

The European banking index lost 9.26% on the week, its fourth consecutive weekly decline, and abandons 21.85% since the beginning of the month.

In the context of economic slowdown and debt crisis, analysts and managers question the ability to rebound in the short term European bank stocks despite the collapse of their course. So much so that the value of the index that measures the 32 largest banks in the euro area currently flirting with the level of the single market capitalization of Apple.

"We do not know exactly what is a bank.We do not know the extent of the default rate that they should take in their accounts according to the scale of the crisis, according to the magnitude of the risk of peripheral countries, "said Philippe Delienne, president of Asset Management Beliefs.

Among banking stocks, Italian banks Unicredit and Intesa Sanpaolo fell Friday by more than 5%.

The British Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds dropped respectively 5.38% and 4.78%.

In Paris, BNP Paribas fell 4.27%, 3.38% Societe Generale and Credit Agricole 1.7%.In contrast, Dexia, which fell by nearly 14% yesterday, ended on a slight rise of 0.13%.

"Markets are concerned because of liquidity problems," said Sebastien Barthelemy, credit analyst at Louis Capital Markets, which is "a lot of elements concomitant raise the specter of inter-bank crisis in 2008."

"The U.S. money market funds are under pressure in the two major asset classes, the T-Bill (U.S. Treasury bond, Ed) and banks in the euro area, they have chosen to reduce (…) their positions in the European paper and particularly French banks, "said Christophe Nijdam for his part, an analyst at AlphaValue.

The appeal Wednesday to ease dollar of the European Central Bank, for the first time since February, had also contributed to frighten the market Thursday, causing the diving banking stocks as Barclays, Dexia or Societe Generale.

"THE CRISIS IS POLITICAL"

In a note, Deutsche Bank believes, however, that concerns about the level of liquidity are exaggerated, but stressed that the risks to bank profits had increased.

Rates on the interbank market also seem to suggest that the financial system does not flu as the main governing Euribor lending between banks fell slightly Friday.

The dollar Libor three-month reference measurement unsecured interbank lending in the euro area, is 0.29%, still far from the 4.8% level it reached after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008 when banks no longer willing to lend to each other.

"As the European crisis is political and that the policies do not go to the rhythm of the markets, there is concern that this crisis lasts several months," said Philippe Delienne, beliefs AM.

"The banks are 'casual victims' (victims of natural, Ed) of all this fear macroeconomic and political uncertainties," said one London-based analyst, who declined to be named.

Wall Street was seized Wednesday by concerns related to the exposure of French banks to the most indebted countries in Europe and possible contagion in the U.S. banking sector.

Like the European markets, the U.S. indices fell sharply on losses to finish higher than 4%.

The Dow has plunged 4.62% or 519.83 points at 10,719.94 points, while the S & P 500 lost 4.42% or 51.77 points to 1120.76 points.

The Nasdaq meanwhile sold 4.09% (101.47 points) to 2381.05 points.

Wall Street has been greatly disturbed by the rumors of the day on the French banking sector in general and in particular, Societe Generale, which was heavily penalized in the CAC 40.

Despite the denials made by Societe Generale, the stock closed down 14.74%.

"People who did not sell fast enough during the last financial crisis stand ready for the next time to sell quickly before asking question. And they think that the next time, it is now," said Ed Crotty, chief investment officer at Davidson Investment Advisors.

Financial stocks have been severely punished.The KBW index of U.S. banks sector was unscrewed from 8.21%.

Including Bank of America lost 6.77% to 10.92 dollars.

Markets in Asia tumbled Monday, despite the proliferation of policy statements and central bankers from the lowering of the sovereign rating of the United States by Standard & Poor's.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei index ended down 2.18% and the broader Topix index lost 2.26%. Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said that market confidence in the dollar and Treasuries had not decreased, suggesting that Tokyo did not intend to dispose of its huge investments in U.S. debt.

In Seoul, the Kospi index fell 3.82%, after falling more than 7% in session.The Korean authorities, in a statement, ensured that the G20 countries were ready to act to ensure stability and liquidity of financial markets.

At the end of these places, the Hang Seng Index gave up 3.8% at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the composite index of Shanghai Stock Exchange fell by 3.56%. Volumes were 20% below their levels in Hong Kong Friday.Cyclical stocks were among the most attacked.

At the same time, the Moscow stock exchange opened in turn and started the session at its lowest in a year, down 3.3%.

In Europe, the index contracts lost about 2%, as well as the "future" on Wall Street indices.

In this context, the gold all-time records above $ 1,700 an ounce and was trading around 1,713 dollars an ounce or so.

Under pressure, the dollar fell in a time and 0.7500 Swiss franc was trading around 1.4365 per euro.

The oil market, crude prices pplus lost $ 3 a barrel to 83.35 dollars for U.S. crude and 106 dollars for Brent.

"There are obviously some places to hide, and these places are doing very well.Gold took the opportunity because no central bank sells only ", says Greg Gibbs, an analyst at RBS in Sydney.

Just before the opening of Asian markets, finance ministers and central bankers from the G7 pledged to take "all necessary measures" to support financial stability and growth, expressing determination to act whenever necessary. The European Central Bank has announced its next "actively implement" the bond buyback program to try to stem the debt crisis in the eurozone.ECB has not specified which countries will be affected by these acquisitions but suggests it could be from Spain and Italy.

Markets now expect the monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve on Tuesday that they hope new efforts to revive the U.S. economy mechanical.

"Investors are wondering whether the Fed will open the door to more accommodative measures, such as quantitative easing. If this is not the case, investors express their disappointment by continuing to sell," Toshio Sumitani provides analyst at Tokai Tokyo.

Financial markets, the continent of Europe to Asia, are still affected by lingering fears about the U.S. economy, and risks of contagion from the euro area. Depression continues. Dasn early trade on Wednesday, Frankfurt yielded 0.81%. European stock markets decline

European financial markets were down again Wednesday morning, before the accumulation of bad news on both sides of the Atlantic. Investors are concerned about the health of the U.S. economy and the renewed tension on the fragile economies of the area in early trade euro.Dans 9:45 (7:45 GMT), Paris and Frankfurt lost 0.81% 0.81% . While Milan fell by 1.44% and 0.22% of Madrid. The London Stock Exchange is also down sharply on Wednesday morning.By 0830 GMT, the FTSE-100 index of the core values ​​has given 53.47 points in the first exchanges, or 0.94% over the closing Tuesday at 5664.92 points.

The U.S. concern. "For now, the American compromise avoids the worst, but provides only partial answers, which will cause an end was difficult," said Francois Duhen of CM-CIC Securities in a note . Now that Congress passed the plan Tuesday to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, the concerns of investors should refer again to the strength of the U.S. recovery. In the wake of the agreement, the rating agency Moody's has matched the note of the United States of a "negative outlook", which means that the country could lose its triple A medium-term, best possible rating, which allows the country to borrow at very low rates.Investors are also very wary especially as the very important U.S. indicators will be published in the afternoon across the Atlantic, including the ADP employment figures in the private sector and the ISM index of activity in services in July. Friday, figures for U.S. growth in the first half, very disappointing, have been a chilling effect on investors that some even fear a recession in the world's largest economy in the second half.

Side the euro area, the fears persist. In the eurozone, are increasing fears of contagion.Italy and Spain are again under pressure from the markets and their governments are mobilizing to stem the panic even if Brussels has ruled out any discussion of a bailout for those countries.

Asian stock markets down

Asian financial markets have again unscrewed Wednesday, worried about the prospects for the global economy, despite the adoption of a text to the United States to avoid a default. The Tokyo Stock Exchange closed sharply down, Nikkei 225 yielding 2.11%. Instead of Seoul also fell sharply, the benchmark index dropping 2.59%. That of Sydney has lost 2.27%. Around 7:20 GMT, Hong Kong, for its part gave up 2.21%, 1.18% Bombay and Shanghai remained almost stable.

The French debt will be increased by about 15 billion euros by 2014 due to the implementation of the plan of aid to Greece reached Thursday night, said Friday Prime Minister Francois Fillon.

This increase in debt could undermine the government's objective to begin to reduce the debt ratios of France from 2013.

"This will have an indirect effect is an increase by 2014 our debt levels, given the inclusion of guarantees, up to about 15 billion euros," said François Fillon to Following a meeting with parliamentarians of the majority.

The government expects public debt will continue to grow this year and next year (85.4% and 86.9% end 2011 end 2012) and begin to decline in 2013 to reach 86.4% at end 2013 and 84.8 % end of 2014.

The leaders of the euro area have developed a new plan Thursday to support involving the private sector and reforming drastically the stability fund to make an embryonic "European Monetary Fund."

Welcomed by the markets, the new Greek plan, a total of 109 billion euros, will be echoed by participating banks and European insurers, the amount could go up to 50 billion euros.

NO BANKRUPTCY OF STATE

"This agreement marks an absolutely decisive in the history of the euro area," said François Fillon."There will be no state of bankruptcy in the euro area, because the solidarity of the euro area will be complete.."

The "golden rule" would entrench the need to reduce deficits in the French Constitution is now more than ever, still says the head of government.

"It is indeed now a joint effort of the countries in the euro area to adopt this budget framework must be credible leads," he said.

France has pledged to reduce its public deficit below 3% of GDP in 2013 but believes it must include the balance of state finances in a basic document.

If this "golden rule" was passed by the majority, it must, to be enshrined in the Constitution, getting three-fifths of the vote in a Congress, which requires adherence to some of the parliamentary left.

The Socialist Party refuses for the moment and Nicolas Sarkozy has not officially taken the decision to convene the Congress but the majority, Francois Fillon at the head, pushed him to move forward.

For the Prime Minister, France played a "central role" in the conclusion of the agreement, including by reaching before the summit in Brussels an agreement with Germany.

"The Franco-German duo has once again played a key role in finding the right solutions to the crisis.I guess you could say that the Franco-German couple is the key to stability in the euro area, "he said.

Finance ministers of the euro area Saturday released a tranche of aid to Greece to 12 billion euros, thus avoiding in Athens to default on its debt in the coming weeks.

In a statement issued after a conference call of the Eurogroup, the ministers also said they continued their discussions on the establishment of a second aid plan for Greece, which could be a similar size to the forefront of 110 billion euros agreed in May 2010.

"The Ministers welcomed the progress made by the Greek authorities (…) In particular, the Ministers noted with satisfaction the adoption by the Greek parliament of key legislation relating to tax strategy and privatization, "it is written in the text.

"Therefore, the ministers endorsed the report of the Commission and the signing of the MoU," can we still read.

The payment of this tranche of aid, the IMF has yet to formally approve, was conditioned to a new austerity program of about 28 billion euros that the Greek Parliament adopted Thursday.

The sixth installment of aid, from 8 billion euros, must now be paid during September but the Europeans hope to tie up by July 11 the second aid plan, which they hope to involve banks, insurance companies and private investors.

"Consultations with the Greek creditors are underway to define the modalities of voluntary participation from the private sector in order to achieve a drastic reduction in annual funding requirements of Greece, while avoiding selective default" the statement said.

The Paris Bourse pauses at the opening Friday after significant progress in the four previous meetings in favor of easing fears about the financial situation of Greece.

At 9:30, the CAC 40 index gave up 0.24% to 3972.48 points after ending the day for the first time since May 30, above its moving average 50 days, then at 3941.89 points .Since the beginning of the week, the benchmark index of the Paris wins again about 5%.

As for values, Renault and Peugeot lose respectively 1.24% (biggest drop in the CAC 40) and 1.1%, declining from 12.6% in June sales of new cars in France feeding on profit taking the automotive sector.

CGG Veritas shows the largest decrease in the SBF 120, with a decline of 3.39% to 24.54 euros, hurt by Goldman Sachs's decision to withdraw the value of its Pan-Europe Buy List (list of values ​​pan-European deals, purchase) and to lower its recommendation to neutral.

Other major European markets are also falling, London and Frankfurt declined by 0.12% and 0.24%.Of the European indices, the EuroStoxx 50 and yields 0.2% Eurofirst 300 lost 0.17%.

The euro edged up 0.2% against the greenback at 1.4523 dollar.

A barrel of U.S. light crude was down 0.78% to 94.68 dollars.