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Sanofi-Aventis could make a first offer around $ 70 per share to acquire U.S. biotech Genzyme, analysts said.

Some consider that the French pharmaceutical group may raise its offer to $ 80.

Under cover of anonymity, one analyst said that "70 dollars would be a first offer" and that "at $ 80 it remains a good deal for Sanofi.

Same story for another sector specialist who believes that $ 80 "operation creates value in three years that will follow."

Citigroup, meanwhile, said that Sanofi will likely be the only buyer of American specialist on rare diseases and will pay between 74-77 dollars per share, or 19.7 to 20.5 billion dollars (15.0 to 15 6 billion euros).

Citi analysts consider that "insofar Sanofi may be the only buyer, and that shareholders are aware that Genzyme may fall into the lower half of the range of 50-60 dollars, unless an agreement is not passed the matter will be at 74-77 dollars. "

They add that the French lab could launch a hostile bid if Genzyme resists and present its offer directly to shareholders.

The shareholder Relational Investors, Carl Icahn, who hold respectively 3.8% and 4.9% from Genzyme, could be satisfied with an offer around $ 75 since they bought at 61 and 54 dollars, says Citi.

Sanofi, an agreement would be $ 75 4% accretive in 2011 and 13% in 2013, analysts have calculated the Citi.

At Raymond James, Eric Le Berrigaud doubt that "70 dollars is sufficient.Starting at $ 70, is ready to go up to $ 80, "he notes." And at 80 dollars it is not certain whether all the guarantees of success since c is roughly the level or was action before Genzyme's production problems.

The biotech has enjoyed last year a series of production problems on its sites in the U.S., which continue to weigh on its business.

"SANOFI PREFERRED FINANCIAL LOGIC"

A fourth analyst insists that Sanofi is expected to launch its bid for Genzyme even if it does not create value for the group's objective is to increase its earnings per share.

"For the operation to bring value, it should pay less than $ 70 per share, or about 64 dollars," he says."If Sanofi launches operation beyond, is that the group favors a financial logic in the short to medium term to close down its results and not the logic of value creation."

For him, "the title Genzyme could return to $ 80 after the settlement of industrial problems, but very transient because its treatment of Gaucher's disease could soon be rivaled.

Sources familiar with the case, it said last week that Sanofi intended to send a letter to Genzyme with the terms of its offer.This offer would be like "bear hug", that is to say friendly at first but may become hostile if necessary.

The Board of Directors of Sanofi has authorized a $ 18.7 billion dollars, said last week, sources familiar with the matter. But Sanofi has financial guidelines allowing it to raise its offer, that is to say, to bring more than $ 70 per share, said a source.

The experts, anyway, that Genzyme is a suspect "white knight" to deal with Sanofi.

A spokesman for the Financial Markets Authority said that the French system which requires an initiator to declare his intentions in certain conditions if the rumors do not apply when the target is foreign.In this case, the law of the country in which the target company is applying, "she added.

The action dealt Genzyme Monday up 0.5% to 69.93 dollars in early afternoon on Wall Street. In Paris, the title Sanofi closed at 45.4 euros (1.88%).

European banking stocks were up, supported by the results of resistance tests conducted by the European authorities to restore market confidence.

Investors, who had initially criticized the methodology of stress tests conducted by the Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS), believe that exercise helps alleviate fears about the solvency of banks.

Having suffered in mid-morning on concerns about exposure of Deutsche Bank in sovereign debt, the sector index Stoxx 600 European banks is again on the rise.

Around 12:50, the index has risen by 0.41%.

The Societe Generale and ING shares rose 2.97% respectively at 39.12 euros and 3.08% to 7.1280 euros.

The Santander, the first bank capitalization in the euro area remained stable at 10.11 euros after opening up to the Madrid Stock Exchange.

"The stress tests show that the French banks and European banks in general, are more truly threatened by a solvency risk," notes Simon Willis, NCB Stockbrokers analyst financial in a research note.

"It remains for banks to find sufficient levels of profitability, long-term effort that requires strategic reviews of activity and improvements in their organization," he says.

Analysts at Credit Suisse in turn emphasize that the publication of detailed exposure to sovereign debt will enable investors to better understand the needs to recapitalize banks and credit risks in the event of default on the debt of a State.

Of the 91 banks in the European Union subject to the tests, only seven property – five Spanish, one German and one Greek – have failed and could therefore be forced to raise 3.5 billion euros of equity.

Others were successful only just like German or Italian Deutsche Postbank Monte dei Paschi di Siena.

DEUTSCHE BANK ASSENTED

French banks BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and BPCE have all passed the test of successful resistance, which allows securities to outperform their benchmark.

BNP Paribas gained 0.86% to 50.22 euros, Crédit Agricole 0.94% to 9.44 euros.

The Franco-Belgian Dexia, which has also passed the tests, scores 2.6% to 3.39 euros.

In Germany, Deutsche Bank, which also passed the tests, is punished by investors for failing detailed its exposure to sovereign debt.The title and yielded 1.24% to 49.13 euros.

The Committee of European Banking Supervisors will also ask the German banks to explain why they did not give details Friday of their holdings of sovereign debt.

In conducting these tests, CEBS and the European Union have sought to ensure that large EU banks had sufficient capital to cope with a deteriorating economy would be worse than expected and new shocks.

Learning from the Greek debt crisis, the tests also incorporated discounts on the value of certain bonds held by banks.

The World Cup effect past the French household consumption of manufactured goods fell 1.4% in June and fell 0.9% on the entire second quarter, posting INSEE.

The disappointing figures, well below expectations, suggest a decrease in consumption of all households in the second quarter, including services and supply, which would be a first for two years.

Twenty-three economists polled by Reuters predicted an average increase of 0.2% in June, with estimates ranging from -1.8% to +1.0%.Initially announced at 0.7%, May's increase was revised to 0.6% after a decline of -1.4% in April.

Since the beginning of the year, spending on manufactured goods have registered only two months of increases in March and May The decrease of 0.9% over the entire second quarter followed a 1.9% decline in first.

"The consumer was dynamic in the last quarter of 2009 was considerably weakened when it has always been the mainstay of the business in France.It is a real concern, "said Dominique Barbet, economist at BNP Paribas.

In June, it is the consumer electronics and clothing that have seen their sales drop, taking over auto sales down sharply in early years after the decline of the "scrappage".

After a jump of 6.4% in May, largely due to purchases of televisions before the World Cup in South Africa, the post of home furnishings fell 3.6% in June, biggest drop since November 2002.

For the sole property of consumer electronics, the decline was 3.7% after a surge of 12.4% in May

DROP IN THE CAR Dyked

Spending on textiles and leather have in turn fell 5.0% in anticipation of summer sales that began June 30, five days later than in 2009, but this schedule gives hope for a rebound in July.

For the quarter, the home furnishings rose 3.0% but textiles and leather down 2.8%.

The decline in car sales for its part was contained in June (0.0% after -0.3% in May and -9.2% in April) but the decline reached 8.4% in the quarter, after already a fall of 11.5% in the first quarter.

The 0.9% decline in spending on manufactured goods in the second quarter fears of a decline in overall consumption, for the first time since the second quarter of 2008 when it fell by 0.1%, said Dominique Barbet.

Purchases of manufactured goods account for about one quarter of total household consumption of goods and services, which is much less volatile statistics and published quarterly in the national accounts framework.

In the first quarter, it had stagnated (0.0%), lower than 1.9% of purchases of manufactured goods was offset by an increase in individual consumption of energy.

INSEE, in his memo on the economy published in June, sees yet remain stalled in the second quarter before a rise of 0.3% in the next two quarters.

"The stabilization of consumer sentiment was announced yesterday is quite encouraging, but the outlook remains weak and not with this level of consumption we can expect 1.5% or 2.0% growth," observes the economist of BNP Paribas.

"Household consumption in manufactured goods grows with a horizontal trend since the first half of 2007, although movements in the car drove the second half of 2009," said Philippe Waechter, director of economic research at Natixis Asset Management.

"In relation to a consumer confidence still low, reflecting concerns about jobs and taxes, we can not imagine a rebound coming and it will penalize significantly the growth momentum in the second half."

Orpea announced Wednesday an increase of 16.3% of its turnover in the first half and confirmed its full-year 2012.

The manager of nursing homes and clinics completed a first half sales of 470 million euros, representing organic growth of 9.3%.

The group has enjoyed a growth of 17.2% in France, which represents the bulk of its sales.

"Orpea confirms with great serenity, its sales targets for the current year and for 2011 and 2012, respectively 960 million, 1.100 million and 1.225 million euros," says in a statement.

In the second quarter alone, sales rose 16.5%, giving an organic growth of 9.1%.

For the second half, the group, which had in March 28.073 beds, expects the opening of many schools.

The shares closed Tuesday at 31.2150 euros, giving a market capitalization of about $ 1.2 billion.