The euro area is beyond the recession
GDP in the euro area has stagnated in the first quarter after falling 0.3% last quarter. But the performance of different countries are very different.
Based on preliminary estimates released Tuesday by the European office of statistics to Eurostat, the euro area recorded no growth (0.0%) during the first three months of the year, after a decline in GDP of 0.3 % last quarter. This figure, better than expected by analysts (-0.2%), allows the euro area narrowly escaped the recession, which is recognized when GDP shrinks for two consecutive quarters. But mostly he hides significant disparities between countries in the euro area: while Germany saw its GDP grow by 0.5%, exceeding all expectations, thanks to exports and consumption, France experienced no growth (0%) and Italy sank into recession (-0.8%).
The Netherlands has also experienced poor performance (-0.2%). As for Greece, she recorded a fall in GDP of 6.2% in the first quarter, according to preliminary official estimate.
These differences show that "the region remains highly dependent on Germany," said Jennifer McKeown of Capital Economics. "A big thank you to progress better than expected German GDP," added Martin Van Vliet of Ing.
Figures released Tuesday should at least contribute to the debate on growth in Europe, a topic that has emerged slowly while facing austerity, especially under the leadership of French President Francois Hollande.
The latter reiterated its position on the issue during his inauguration speech Tuesday morning at the Elysee Palace. "To our partners, I will propose a new pact that will combine the necessary reduction of public debt with the necessary stimulus," he said. "To overcome the crisis that afflicts it," he said, "Europe needs projects, it needs solidarity, it needs for growth."
The subject should be central to its discussions on Tuesday afternoon in Berlin with Chancellor Angela Merkel, the main advocate of fiscal discipline in Europe, who reluctantly welcomed his proposal to add a growth component in the European budgetary treaty. How to revive European growth will also constitute the main theme of the dinner which will bring together European leaders in Brussels on May 23
The Italian leader, Mario Monti, proposed last week to "unite people of good will" to ensure that it is "compatible" with fiscal consolidation. He is scheduled to meet Tuesday in Brussels with European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, whose proposals for growth (increased resources for the European Investment Bank, finance major European projects, tax on financial transactions , better use of EU funds) are widely shared by Mr. Holland.
European leaders will anyway have to be proactive to defy predictions of analysts. To Martin Van Vliet, there is "no evidence of strong and sustained economic rebound on the horizon for the euro area".
As for Howard Archer, IHS Global Insight, thinks that "a contraction of GDP will likely be on the menu in the second quarter." Although a gradual return to growth is expected later this year, "a further escalation of the debt crisis, not counting an output of Greece (the euro area), could derail the expected recovery," puts cautioned Mr. Van Vliet.