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GDP in the euro area has stagnated in the first quarter after falling 0.3% last quarter. But the performance of different countries are very different.

Based on preliminary estimates released Tuesday by the European office of statistics to Eurostat, the euro area recorded no growth (0.0%) during the first three months of the year, after a decline in GDP of 0.3 % last quarter. This figure, better than expected by analysts (-0.2%), allows the euro area narrowly escaped the recession, which is recognized when GDP shrinks for two consecutive quarters. But mostly he hides significant disparities between countries in the euro area: while Germany saw its GDP grow by 0.5%, exceeding all expectations, thanks to exports and consumption, France experienced no growth (0%) and Italy sank into recession (-0.8%).

The Netherlands has also experienced poor performance (-0.2%). As for Greece, she recorded a fall in GDP of 6.2% in the first quarter, according to preliminary official estimate.

These differences show that "the region remains highly dependent on Germany," said Jennifer McKeown of Capital Economics. "A big thank you to progress better than expected German GDP," added Martin Van Vliet of Ing.  

Figures released Tuesday should at least contribute to the debate on growth in Europe, a topic that has emerged slowly while facing austerity, especially under the leadership of French President Francois Hollande.

The latter reiterated its position on the issue during his inauguration speech Tuesday morning at the Elysee Palace. "To our partners, I will propose a new pact that will combine the necessary reduction of public debt with the necessary stimulus," he said. "To overcome the crisis that afflicts it," he said, "Europe needs projects, it needs solidarity, it needs for growth."

The subject should be central to its discussions on Tuesday afternoon in Berlin with Chancellor Angela Merkel, the main advocate of fiscal discipline in Europe, who reluctantly welcomed his proposal to add a growth component in the European budgetary treaty. How to revive European growth will also constitute the main theme of the dinner which will bring together European leaders in Brussels on May 23

The Italian leader, Mario Monti, proposed last week to "unite people of good will" to ensure that it is "compatible" with fiscal consolidation. He is scheduled to meet Tuesday in Brussels with European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, whose proposals for growth (increased resources for the European Investment Bank, finance major European projects, tax on financial transactions , better use of EU funds) are widely shared by Mr. Holland.

European leaders will anyway have to be proactive to defy predictions of analysts. To Martin Van Vliet, there is "no evidence of strong and sustained economic rebound on the horizon for the euro area".

As for Howard Archer, IHS Global Insight, thinks that "a contraction of GDP will likely be on the menu in the second quarter." Although a gradual return to growth is expected later this year, "a further escalation of the debt crisis, not counting an output of Greece (the euro area), could derail the expected recovery," puts cautioned Mr. Van Vliet.

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Unemployment in Germany fell in March to 6.7%, its lowest level since the reunification of the country, a decline which heightens the contrast between Europe's largest economy and its neighbors and should support both consumption and wage demands.

The number of job seekers decreased by 18,000 over the past month, its fifth straight decline, returning to 2.841 million according to figures adjusted for seasonal variation (CV) published ; s Thursday by the Federal Labour Office.

This decrease is more pronounced than expected since the 35 economists polled by Reuters had expected a decline of 10,000. 

"The resilience of the German labor market bodes well for private consumption in the first half," commented Carsten Brzeski, economist at ING.

"The mild weather in March and almost unwavering optimism of entrepreneurs seem the main drivers of the improvement of the fall in unemployment announced today."

These figures are good news for the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, whose estimates are based largely on increased tax revenues.

They also enhance the contrast between Germany and France, where the numbers of unemployment in February hit their highest level since October 1999. 

While the German population is nearly 30% higher than the French, the number of jobseekers CVS is now lower than that of unemployed Class A in the Hexagon.

SALARY INCREASES OF POSSIBLE

4%

If the German economy, driven by exports, has recovered quickly from the 2008-2009 financial crisis, it has not escaped the relapse caused the end of 2011, contracting by 0.2% in the fourth quarter due to the debt crisis in the euro area and its impact on global demand. 

It seems to be resurged since the beginning of this year, which led several economic research institutes to raise their growth projections and e ; housing with near certainty the hypothesis of a new recession (two consecutive quarters of declining GDP).

Buoyant labor market in this climate generally heckled favored improving consumer confidence, rising in six of seven months as the barometer of the GfK. 

The decline in unemployment has led parallel to the German unions claim higher wages after several years of rigor in this area: the central Verdi and IG Metall and ask one the other increases of 6.5% for the approximately five million workers they represent.

For Christian Schulz, an economist at Berenberg Bank, wage growth is "inevitable" because of tensions on the labor market.

"While it is unlikely that requests for increases of 6% are accepted, agreements with increases of 4% are possible," said he. "With inflation back to 2.1% in March, wage increases may provide important new welcome boost to consumer spending."

Many economists note, however, that the downward trend in unemployment slows as lessens the impact of reforms implemented in recent years to increase the flexibility of the labor market .

Total accelerates its fall Tuesday afternoon in Paris Bourse, in a climate of growing concern about the consequences of the gas leak occurred Sunday on its platform of Elgin-Franklin North Sea.

At 4:16 p.m., the action of the oil giant posted the largest decline in the CAC 40, yielding 6.57% to 38.31 euros, its lowest level in three months. The title acknowledges its biggest drop since December 2008 and saw its market capitalization and nearly melted almost six billion euros.

Total, by far the highest weight of the ACC, led the Paris index, which yielded 0.68% while the other major European markets were stable and the sector index Europé in commodities advanced 0.53%.

At this stage, investors are more concerned about the impact of leakage on the group's production and its consequences on the environment and the prudent play while waiting to get an idea pre Cise of the magnitude of the disaster.

"Investors apply the precautionary principle in a situation still uncertain, in memory with the recent accident that affected BP," said Romain Burnand, co-director of Moneta Asset Management. 

The explosion and sinking and the Deepwater Horizon, in the Gulf of Mexico, eleven had died in April 2010. Some 4.9 million barrels of crude oil had escaped from the Macondo well, drilled on behalf of the "major" British Petroleum. After the disaster, BP had lost more than 52% of its stock value in less than two months.

"With the memory of Macondo, the market remains very nervous about this kind of news until the problem is not quantified," says one trader.

"This event will impact Total's production and creates a risk of pollution, limited at this stage, but not yet identified," he says, noting that the group is still undecided in his faç ; we deal with the incident.

TWO OPTIONS

Total has indeed explained explore all possible options to deal with the gas leak on the platform Elgin-Franklin, including drilling a relief well, an operation that could take six months.

"There are two options for intervention. One is to drill a relief well, which could take about six months. The other is an intervention on the platform to seal the well (…) what would be a faster option, "he told Reuters David Hainsworth, safety manager, health and environment at Total Exploration & Production UK

. "We plan to decide on a course in the coming days," he In addition to mobilizing added

. 10 to 20 engineers, the group has engaged the services of Wild Well Control, society that occurred during the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010

. Total said Monday it has stopped production and have evacuated its staff on site (238 people), after the leak occurred Sunday. 

The platform was producing nine million cubic meters of gas per day, equivalent to 3% of UK production of natural gas and 60,000 barrels per day of light crude.

The gas cloud that formed around the platform, located off Scotland to 240 kilometers east of Aberdeen, has forced Shell to evacuate employees of two neighboring platforms for safety reasons.

The leak has formed a cloud dense enough to be visible to other platforms in the North Sea. Shell has decided to suspend, as a precaution, to drill on one of them.

The environmental consequences of leakage of natural gas condensates are much less serious than those of oil spills, has informed the British Minister of Energy.

An exclusion zone of sea and air, however, was declared around the platform, said Total.

The Swiss watchmaker Swatch plans to create 1,000 jobs worldwide and generate a turnover of 8 billion Swiss francs (6.64 billion euros) this year, said Sunday its CEO Nick Hayek told Der Sonntag.

Nick Hayek regularly manifests its opposition to the strong Swiss franc, which penalizes exports Helvetic.

"We want as close as possible to the threshold of 8 billion francs," he told the Sunday newspaper.

"This will be possible if there is no economic or political disaster, and that exchange rates remain stable or improve."

In early January, Swatch Group announced a turnover of more than seven billion francs, after a double-digit growth in sales of watches and jewelry division.

European shares ended lower Tuesday as investors pocketed their profits after a second agreement on a plan to help Greece to dispel the specter of a dice ; be next month, but not to solve all the country's economic problems.

On profit taking, the Paris Bourse has sold 0.21% (7.30 points) to 3,465.24 points. The pan-European index Stoxx 50 fell 0.34%, the German Dax is 0.58% and 0.29% FTSE UK.

Trading volumes on the pan-European FTSEurofirst index was 22% thinner than usual, a sign that investors have not rushed to the exit after obtaining a agreement on Greece, much preferring a wait.

The agreement, torn by the euro area at night, after thirteen hours of negotiations, plans to reduce Greece's debt to 120.5% of GDP by 2020 through a new program of public loans of 130 billion euros and a restructuring of debt held by private creditors.

Highly anticipated by the markets, the plan is not a miracle cure for all ills of Greece. Strangled by his austerity measures, the country will return to growth until 2014, after four years of recession that have reduced the gross domestic product (GDP) 17% believe senior European officials.

Meanwhile, the aid package to Greece may yet derail and Greek debt explode to unmanageable levels by 2020, according to a confidential report prepared by "troika" of the country's international creditors.

Yields on debt issued by the 'peripheral' countries of the euro area eased in favor of the agreement. Sign of an easing in the bond markets, Spain issued in the morning 2.5 billion euros of debt in three to six months, with yields down by sharp the previous auction of this type.

The euro rose to 1.3270 dollars around him after reaching 1.3292 to the dollar after the announcement of an agreement on the Greek plan.

Signs that debt problems are not confined to Greece, the European Commission will propose Wednesday to suspend payments from the Cohesion Fund for Hungary from 2013, due to lack Budapest progress in reducing its budget deficit, shows a document of the EU executive.

Unilever issued a sales increase of 7.8% in the third quarter and expects margins stable or declining for the year 2011, experienced strong sales growth in emerging markets.

The manufacturer of soaps and mayonnaise has raised its prices by nearly 6%, while sales in countries such as India, Indonesia and Brazil have helped to offset difficult markets in Europe and the United States .

However, the group warned that its operating margin at constant perimeter and constant exchange rates would be stable or slightly declining over the year 2011 due to higher commodity prices.

On this basis, the Group reported a turnover up 7.8%, a performance better than the consensus of society, which provided an increase of 6.3%, following growth of 4.3% in the first quarter and 7.1% in the second.

The left won Sunday for the first time under the Fifth Republic by an absolute majority by winning the 25 extra seats it needed, seven months before the presidential election in France. View from the Senate at the Palais du Luxembourg

The left won 265 Sunday in September 2011 a historic victory in Senate elections by toggling the Second Chamber of Parliament in his camp, for the first time of the Fifth Republic, causing a political upheaval in seven months of présidentiellme. "For the first time, the Senate knows alternating" said the boss very moved senators PS, Jean-Pierre Bel. While all the results were not yet arrived, he announced that the left had "175 senators, that is to say beyond the majority". "The change is underway," he added.François Hollande, a candidate for the PS primary, leading in the polls, saw "a breakdown of the system Sarkozy", "prescient" in 2012.

As in the day, the results are severe for the majority who have fallen. The Minister of the City, Maurice Leroy, beaten, won an eighth seat on the left in Paris where the UMP holds only two senators. A gain of one seat to the left in the President's own Department of the Senate UMP Gérard Larcher. Loiret, Isère, Nord, Pas de Calais, Hauts-de-Seine, Val de Marne, Oise, Manche, Pyrénées Orientales … the list of departments where the left rose grows signing a very strong push for the opposition. "More than two senators UMP in Paris is a historical and political defeat," he triumphed Anne Hidalgo, Deputy PS first mayor of Paris, Bertrand Delanoe.Pierre Charon, suspended from the UMP to dissent and still elected, made a triumphant arrival in the Senate.

Progresses across the left

The re-election in the first round in the Loiret department traditionally right out of Senator Jean-Pierre Sueur and that, in the Morbihan, the outgoing Herviaux Odette, also PS, gave the signal for the win at midday . In the wake of victory in the Pyrenees-Orientale President of the Regional Council of Languedoc-Roussillon, "frêchiste" Christian Bourquin confirmed the trend.This is "a historical progression to the left and an unquestionable sanction for the UMP," said the PS first secretary of Acting, Harlem Désir, came to the Senate shortly after the primary candidate for the PS and Martine Aubry that of François Hollande.

This victory is particularly favorable for the latter, a large majority of senators voted for PS having the member of Corrèze. Has lost the right departments since it held almost always as the Lozere. "The left is progressing everywhere, you feel a groundswell," assured of Public Sénat, the Socialist Party national secretary in charge of elections, Christopher Borgel. It is a defeat all the more important that there is "a denial of the right of the electors," added Michel Delebarre, Mayor of Dunkirk and PS top of the list in the North where the left won a seat and missed the sixth to one vote.Gérard Longuet ministers (Defence) and Chantal Jouanno (Sport) were elected.

At seven months of the presidential defeat sounds like a very bad signal to President Nicolas Sarkozy. Saturday will be the election of the President of the Senate and a majority of the left should result in a leftist president. Catherine Tasca should try his luck against Jean-Pierre Bel, which theoretically should succeed the perch to Mr. Larcher. The left Sunday's success to his victories in recent local elections (municipal, regional, cantonal). The right wing has suffered from its strong divisions and strong discontent of local officials, who have unwelcome territorial reform and consolidation of Commons forced march led by the prefects.

The deficit in Social Security should be reduced to 14 billion euros in 2012 due to the impact of pension reform and new conservation measures planned for the health branch, said Thursday Valérie Pécresse, the Minister of Budget .

The government on Thursday to present the draft law on financing of Social Security (PLFSS) 2012.

In June, the Commission on Social Security accounts were reduced to 19.5 billion euros deficit in its forecast for this year.

"Our forecast for 2012 is 14 billion deficit.Fourteen billion euros when it was scheduled for 2015, so we have two years ahead, more than two years ahead, "said Valerie Pécresse on France 2.

"For the health sector, the deficit will be less than six billion euros, while we were at 12 billion in 2010," she said.

She said the announced reduction of the deficit by increased revenues related to pension reform and a halving of the deficit of sickness, thanks in part to new savings measures.

This savings plan should include new delisting for about 40 million euros and 600 million in savings on drug prices through price reductions negotiated with pharmaceutical companies.

The small archipelago in the Atlantic Ocean would have hidden more than 1.67 billion euros of debt since 2008. This discovery increases the Portuguese public debt by 0.3 percentage points of GDP. View of Madeira Island off the coast of Portugal

Portuguese statistical authorities announced Friday they had discovered undeclared debts of the Autonomous Region of Madeira that increase the government deficit in Portugal to 1.11 billion euros from 2008 to 2010, and that of the 568 million année.Selon a Joint Statement of the Bank of Portugal (OTP) and the National Statistics Institute (INE), this is a "serious omission of information" detected after a report of the Court of Auditors the finances of this small archipelago in the Atlantic Ocean.

These debts represent an impact on the public debt estimated at 0.3 percentage points of GDP and involves an upward revision of the deficit in 2008 (+0.08) 2009 (0.03 points) and 2010 (+ 0.53 points), stated the Ine and OTP. According to latest official figures, the debt was late 2010 to 93% of GDP and the deficit to 9.1% of GDP. Debts for the current year had already been detected in the first quarterly assessment conducted by representatives of the European Union and International Monetary Fund as part of the aid plan of 78 billion euros granted in Portugal May

The Portuguese government had then decided to resort to extraordinary income in order to correct a skid overall budget of about EUR 2 billion and meet the deficit target to 5.9% of GDP this year."The evidence released today reveal a serious deficiency," responded the Ministry of Finance, pointing out that it is an "isolated case" and noting that the regional government of Madeira has already asked the Lisbon helps to develop its own financial recovery program.

The UMP is considering the possibility of lowering unemployment benefits for top earners. Medef protests. Update on the controversy. The compensation of executives in unemployment in the viewfinder of the UMP. What exactly is the proposal of the UMP?

Speaking of "proposal" is a bit premature. It is rather a reflection outlined by Bruno Le Maire in an interview with L'Express, in the form of question: "Can we keep a system of unemployment benefits among the most generous in the world, especially for executives with high salaries? "asked the Minister of Agriculture, also supports the party platform for 2012. But this idea does not come from nowhere. It was brought by Peter Méhaignerie early years, in an interview with Marc Landre, Le Figaro journalist and host of the blog The Cartoon Network.And quickly put away in the closet.

Why is unemployment compensation cap frames?

Because the government does not know where to save money, and that the financial situation of the UI is poor: 10.5 billion euros of debt accumulated by the end of the year, and a deficit of 2 billion for 2011. Yet some executives, those who earn 11,000 euros a month and can accommodate up to 6000 euros per month. And for two years. The temptation is great to scrounge money from this population, especially as our European neighbors, the limits of compensation are much lower: 1400 in Spain, Germany 2200 or 1000 in Italy, as Marc Landré points.

It would still not a measure of social justice?

Difficult to present it as such … Managers reported more than they cost to unemployment insurance, as confirmed Unedic.Bernard Van Craeynest, the President of the CFE-CGC, for his part said on BFM TV "they account for 30% funding of unemployment insurance and consume roughly 15 or 17%." In fact, they are less affected by unemployment than other occupational groups and the contributions they pay are higher, since these contributions are a fixed percentage of salary and wages are higher. Lower the contribution limit would create a mechanical reduction of these contributions, and crop revenue so the UI, as outlined Laurence Parisot, president of MEDEF, against the proposal. Unless you do not reduce contributions … "It would be discrimination, an analysis of the trade union CFE-CGC. And it would be questionable in court for breach of equality, the principle is that you receive based on what you contribute."