News – Business & Economi

The Scientific Council of indices for the Paris Stock Exchange has decided to withdraw Dexia and Lagardère CAC 40, which will be replaced by Natixis and Publicis, NYSE Euronext said Friday.

Dexia and Lagardere will be included in the index Next20, ante ACC with Edenred and Rhodia, while Atos Origin and Land Regions are withdrawn over Natixis and Publicis.

These decisions will take effect from the trading session of September 20, 2010, said Euronext, which manages the Paris, Brussels, Amsterdam and Lisbon, and the New York Stock Exchange now payday loans.

The Scientific Council of indices for the Paris Bourse meets four times a year.It decides the composition of indices taking into account market capitalization, volume and weight of the share float of securities.

Five values also incorporate the SBF 120 – Bull, Faiveley Transport, Medica, Ruby and Sequana, while six are removed – Beneteau, Bonduelle, French Cement, Euler Hermes, Sperian Protection and Vilmorin.

Nissan Motor announced Wednesday that he still thought to exceed its goal of worldwide sales this year despite fears about the U.S. economic recovery, but he also warned against the effects of the current strength of the yen on its results.

"The stronger yen has a big impact on us.We will adopt measures to minimize cons-impact, "he told Reuters Insider assistant general manager, Toshiyuki Shiga, outside the auto show in Moscow.

He said that the cons-measures envisaged included an increase in imports of automotive components.

"We still do not change our earnings prospects but there are headwinds: the raw material costs rise, the yen appreciates (…) We have taken into account in our budget to a parity of 90 yen per dollar He is now at 83 yen, "he added.

While investors are hoping for a response from the Japanese authorities to contain the strong yen, Nomura Securities estimates that a rise of the yen against the dollar would result in a decrease of 0.9% of current earnings of major Japanese industrial groups fiscal year 2010-2011, which ends in March.

Nissan, the third Japanese automobile manufacturer, hopes to increase its market share globally this year with a growth of about 8% of its sales to 3.8 million vehicles, thanks to new versions of its small city Micra / March in his "crossover" Juke and other new models.

"Based on current trends, we can exceed our goal of global sales (3.8 million vehicles) if the market remains stable but the U.S. recovery is not expected to change very positively," said Toshiyuki Shiga.

Moreover, the CEO of Nissan in Russia, Francois Goupil de Bouille said it expects to double sales of the manufacturer on the Russian market to 100,000 vehicles this year, while all the Russian car market could reach two million units, after falling in 2009.

In late July, the Japanese group, in which Renault owns 43%, maintained its forecast of annual results due to uncertainties surrounding the outlook for global demand, despite the publication of its best quarterly operating profit for over two years.

While the earnings season ends business in the United States, optimism about the earnings outlook for the third quarter gradually eroded as investors fearing that the weak demand reflected by the indicators Macroeconomic weigh on sales and margins of listed companies.

While only a handful of companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 has not yet submitted its accounts, the average growth index of profits in the second quarter stood at 38.4% compared to the corresponding period of the Last year, according to data from Thomson Reuters.

Such performance is unlikely to be equaled in the third quarter.The estimates, which are currently still at the level they were in early July, predicting earnings growth of 24.9% over one year.

"It could well be one of the last quarter for which the results are as good as mine.There is already, for example, they slow down or they're to move downward for 2011, "said Pankaj Patel, analyst at Credit Suisse in New York.

If 75% of the S & P 500 have exceeded estimates in the second quarter, compared to an historical average of 62%, many observers believe that profit margins could well have peaked.

Productivity has in fact declined by 0.9% over the same period, suggesting that companies may well find themselves unable to maintain their level of profitability.

ESTIMATES TOO OPTIMISTIC?

The average margin for the S & P 500 was 8.9% in April-June, against 6.2% a year earlier, according to Howard Silverblatt, an analyst at Standard & Poor's.

The disappointing economic indicators published in recent weeks, particularly on the employment front, began to be integrated into the course: the S & P 500 has a 0.7% drop since July 12, the start of the season results .

"There are many headwinds (…) and if you start to take them into account, we see that some numbers may be too optimistic," said Alan Lancz, president of Alan B. Lancz & Associates, an investment consulting firm.

The second part of the earnings season has been worse than the first.Of more than 2,000 U.S. companies announced their accounts, more than 70% have exceeded analysts' estimates during the first half of the period of publication, but this ratio fell to 66% by the end of the season, according to analysts at the company Studies Bespoke Investment Group.

For the third quarter, the estimates should not change much more until early October.

"Unless exceptional economic event (…) a major change in numbers is unlikely" for at least several weeks, Judge John Butters, head of U.S. monitoring results, Thomson Reuters.

The restatement of financial results of listed companies has been a major driver of the rebound in the S & P 500 from the lowest 12 years hit early in March 2009 and since then, the index rose by 58%.

The trade deficit of France fell to 3.796 billion euros from 5.179 billion in June (revised) the previous month, thanks to increased exports find their level two years ago, according to data CVS / OCJ posted Friday by Customs.

Throughout the first half, the deficit increased to 24.544 billion against 22.928 billion during the first six months of 2009, a decline due mainly to the increase in energy costs.

The deficit for June was better than expected – economists polled by Reuters expecting an average of 4.5 billion, the lowest estimate is 4.0 billion – and is explained by an increase of 10% exports.

The balance of May has additionally been revised downwards to 5.179 billion 5.500 billion instead of an initial estimate announced a month ago, but nonetheless the highest since October 2008.

Exports FOB data CVS / CJO jumped 10.2% to 33.016 billion euros in June against 29.948 billion in May, reaching their highest level since August and September 2008.

Imports were up to their side of 36.812 billion euros against 35.127 billion the previous month.

In the second quarter alone, exports rose 2.6%, after rising 5.1% the first three months of the year, while imports rose 7.4% after +2.1% within the scope of energy purchases.

SALES OF AIRBUS straighten

Improved trade balance in June was primarily due to exports of transport equipment. France has sold on July 26 Airbus which it earned 1.719 million euros against 19 aircraft to 1,050 million euros in May, combined to deliver a packet.

"The sales of transportation equipment, which fell 1.4 billion euros in May, are better than recover.Outside major contracts, industrial exports are also dynamic, "according to Customs in their commentary.

"Throughout the first half, the resumption of trade undertaken in late 2009 has intensified, not found for all the pre-crisis levels," added the administration.

Of these six months, exports rose 5.9% to 187.0 billion euros, compared with an increase of 3.9% in the second half of 2009.

After two semesters of decline, aerospace sales have rebounded by 10.4%, France has supplied over the period 141 Airbus worth 9.4 billion euros.

Automotive exports have, however, increased only 4.3% after rising by 19.5% in the previous semester when they had received "car scrapping" in most European countries.

The mechanical and electronic equipment, pharmaceuticals, intermediate goods (chemicals, metals), agricultural products and energy products have also been well directed, according to Customs figures.

REBOUND AMPLIFIED

Imports have increased their share from 7.4% in the first half, after +2.1% in the previous six months, mainly due to the depreciation of the euro has made it more expensive energy purchases paid in dollars.

The energy bill was so weighty $ 23.2 billion against 20.1 billion in the second half of 2009.

Excluding energy, the increase in imports is only 5.6%, after +2.2% in the second half of 2009, note Customs.

If it has increased the energy bill, the weaker euro has instead favored exports that show a 10% increase compared to the first six months of 2009.

"In the first half of 2010, the French foreign trade has amplified the rebound started in late 2009 by taking advantage of the upturn in world trade and strong demand from emerging countries," said Anne-Marie Idrac, Secretary of State Foreign Trade, in a statement.

"Exports rose to virtually all trading partners, with particular vigor to China or Brazil," she adds.

Towards Germany, the largest trading partner of France, exports grew by 8.5% in the first half.Those to Spain, however, fell 1.4%, reflecting the difficulties of this country is, after Germany and Italy, the third biggest market for French exports.

The press kit released by Bercy reported encouraging outlook for the rest of the year.

"France will continue to benefit, assuming a stabilization of the exchange rate of the euro, an enhanced price competitiveness, the effects on sales will be realized fully in the second half of 2010 and 2011, especially to large emerging markets, "it reads.

Syngenta has lowered its targets on Thursday and now anticipates a decline in earnings this year due to a late start planting, the result of a severe winter, and the burden of taxation.

Around 8:15 GMT, the action accused the coup losing 5.21% to 229.40 Swiss francs, while the index grouping the European chemical values yielded 0.76%.

The planting season started late in the northern hemisphere, but demand has accelerated in the second quarter, especially in emerging markets, told Reuters CEO Mike Mack.

As a result, the Swiss agribusiness group, world leader in its field, now anticipates a strong second half, with good signs for the upcoming planting season in the Southern Hemisphere he added.

"We anticipate an operating profit of about that of last year but, instead, a decrease in net profit," he said.

A continuing evolution in Latin America and Asia should make it possible to Syngenta, which also produces genetically modified seeds, to offset a 13% drop in operating profit in the first half to finish the year with operating profit unchanged said Mike Mack.

Finance costs and tax rates should weigh heavier on the net profits, also said the CEO.

Net income declined 11% to 1.25 billion dollars in the first half, while the Reuters poll gave it to 1.38 billion.

Revenues increased 1% to 6.74 billion dollars, is there a little higher than the consensus (6.69 billion).

THE EMERGING TO THE DEVELOPED

Emerging markets such as Latin America and Asia-Pacific are increasingly important for the group."That was the year Syngenta could see its sales in emerging markets than those in developed markets," added Mike Mack.

Shares of agribusiness groups have declined this year due to stiff competition from cheaper Asian products and uncertainty about the regulations of GMOs (genetically modified organisms).

The slide has picked up speed after that Monsanto has sharply reduced its full-year in May and reported a 45% drop in quarterly net income in June.

German Bayer, which has a subsidiary agrochemicals, will release its second quarter results on July 28 and his compatriot BASF, also present on this segment, July 29.

The European Commission released this month a proposal under which the Member States of the European Union could soon have the ability to prohibit the cultivation of GM crops on their land without justification.

The action Syngenta trades at a PER 2011 around 12.5, below that of the U.S. Monsanto but over other European companies in the sector.

She lost about a fifth of its value since the peak reached in March this year.

Industrial production in France has strongly rebounded in May, rising 1.7% after falling 0.5% the previous month, according to data CVS-CJO published by INSEE.

Twenty-two economists polled by Reuters had expected an average growth of 0.4% of overall industrial production in May, with estimates ranging from 0.0% to 0.9%.

The April figure was revised to -0.5% -0.3% instead announced a month ago.

Manufacturing output, that is to say, outside energy but with food included, rose 0.5% in May after a revised rise of 0.3% (+0.4% in the first estimate) the month precedent.

Marks & Spencer has reported a third consecutive quarter of sales growth recurring but at a slower pace and was cautious, like its competitors, prospects of consumption.

The British group, the number one clothing in the United Kingdom and also present in food and household goods, said its sales at stores open at least a year rose 3.6% the 13 weeks ending July 3, which correspond to the first quarter of its fiscal year.

This increase is in the top end of analyst expectations thanks to good performance clothing.It is, however, lag behind the 5.1% increase the previous quarter.

The recurring sales excluding food fit up 6% while sales in food rose 1.5%.

UK retailers worried about the consequences of tax increases and budget cuts announced by the government on June 22 consumption."We had a good start to our fiscal year, but after the recent budget and the measures taken to reduce the deficit, the increase in VAT, we are cautious on the outlook," said Chief Executive.

However, he ruled out a relapse of the British economy in recession and confirmed the target of a stable gross margin for the entire year.

Marc Bolland, who took over the reins of Marks & Spencer last month, confirmed he will present a strategic plan was updated in November.It could however be facing a revolt from some of its shareholders at the general meeting of the week, some investors do not hide their criticism of his pay 15 million pounds (23 million) annually.

The international sales rose 0.9% while those on the internet via M & S Direct have jumped 49%.

Marks & Spencer has underperformed the Stoxx 600 index of European retail sector by 11% since the beginning of this year. The value finished at 352.7 pence on Tuesday in closing a course corresponding to a capitalization of 5.4 billion pounds.

It yields 2.52% at 343.8 pence in morning

The Paris Bourse is rising again on Friday after losing 3% yesterday, in expectation of monthly U.S. employment in the afternoon.

Around 9:15 am, the CAC 40 advanced 0.32% to 3350.67 points.

For its first meeting at the Paris Bourse, Edenred sign the largest increase of ACC (which will be removed Monday) and climbed 17.54% to 13.40 euros. For its part, accuses Accor the largest decline and yields 2.74%.

The bank bounce after being battered again yesterday. BNP Paribas wins 1.3%. The group announced Thursday a partnership with BPCE in consumer credit. Societe Generale gained 0.78%, 0.84% and Dexia Crédit Agricole 0.43%.

Sanofi-Aventis lost 0.52%.The group has refused to comment on reports that he would prepare an acquisition in the United States of at least 20 billion dollars.

Other major European markets also rebounded, London and Frankfurt gained 0.37% 0.42%. As for the European indices, the EuroStoxx 50 advance 0.49% and 0.36% Eurofirst 300.

The euro remains stable against the U.S. dollar resumed after about three cents a day and is trading around 1.252 against the dollar.

U.S. light crude oil was unchanged after its withdrawal on Thursday and is treated slightly above $ 73 a barrel.

Marc Touati, Associate Director of Global Equities

This topic is more socially and economically. In the current crisis, it is even very controversial, very "dangerous". We must therefore take tweezers in the formulation of the analysis to avoid offending the spell …

I. The model of solidarity to the French: the world's best

Originally the solidarity model, also called French social model may appear as the best in the world. Its basic principle is: high public spending and high tax burdens, but in exchange, through redistribution, greater solidarity and hence less inequality, less unemployment, less poverty and more comfort- be economic.

II.This model of solidarity no longer works

Sadly, the last ten years, this model is fraying, as far as public spending increases more and more (56% of French GDP in 2009), the tax burden is among the highest in the world. Despite this extravagant strategy, growth, structural decline, unemployment is around 10% sustainable, poverty rate increases (14% of French people living below the poverty line), including the widening inequalities in income and health and funding of the retirement pay is more assured. So the French model of solidarity is more effective.

Conclusion: how to find a more effective model

This is where the controversy settled: that it must also increase public spending and taxes.If this solution is certainly easier, it is not credible: it no longer works for 20 years and is a runaway. We must therefore stop veiling the face: the only way to make solidarity in France resides in the ability of the latter to the high growth. To achieve this, we must reduce the tax burden for all, make it as fairer, while lowering the inefficient public spending, including operating expenses.

Jean Paul Betbeze, director of studies of the Credit Agricole

Introduction: The word solidarity is one of the most important part of our vocabulary, one of the most sensitive too, because it is at the crossroads between economic and social. He asked how "to society", that is to say, how to combine growth, efficiency, distribution, justice.The issue of solidarity is today more acute because the growth is not at the rendezvous. This leads to questions about growth (innovation, the company …) and the terms of the distribution of wealth, with the idea that certain expenses, sometimes called Solidarity, were too high and / or have not contributed to growth, as might have been expected.

I. The French social model, an exception

Solidarity meeting in fact a set of situations. For one third of expenditure, are shocks that have affected people, health first, another third are economic shocks, mainly unemployment and its consequences for a third and third is the evolution costs associated with aging. Shock people, economic shock and the shock of aging are the sources of expenditure solidarity.It is necessary to study their relevance, legitimacy and, where possible, their effectiveness. Looking in effect say that young people can not but be struck by the solidarity they restricted themselves to considering. The family, themselves and their friends and cronies. Altogether, they and their entourage. This sends the idea, positively, that the best solidarity begins at home and his family (training, job search and lifestyle), but also that state support, social activities are increasingly counted in First the conditions of retirement and old age support. Truth and realism.

II. There can be no solidarity without growth

So we must find ways to live together solidarity and growth, after some excesses were committed and at the inability to continue as before.It can therefore be, in any event, solidarity without legitimacy, without transparency, without verification. That is no explanation for it, without penalty to the excesses or misrepresentation and – increasingly – without education, training, to avoid any shocks. Economic solidarity corresponds to the current difficulties of the job. Unemployment is the brand, but also retirement (since the nonworking are partly taken into account). But support to individual entrepreneurs (with tax benefits) are also a de facto solidarity. A total of solidarity that we measure is often posterior to the problem, it must be proactive. It must be less than a correction, compensation of a preparation: training throughout life support mobility.Solidarity in the event of sickness is also essential, but it can not avoid the growing support in people themselves. Lifestyle, sports, medical conditions are independent of a reduction of medical risk and provide an old age happier, longer and less dependent on solidarity.

Conclusion: Overall, we must squarely address the solidarity at the intersection of economics and welfare, by making clearer the economy (transparency, fairness, efficiency), the general benefit of society.

European shares ended Friday in a disorganized but the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index displays eighth consecutive day of gains.

The Paris Bourse closed on a very slight increase from 0.11% to 3687.21 points on Friday, again its eighth consecutive increase, and shows a gain of 3.770% for the week. In ten days, the CAC 40 bounced 10%.

The index of key European values close to him as a fourth consecutive week of gains, with a gain of 2.53% in five meetings, in a context of a rebound in world stock markets.

The MSCI World Index shows indeed ninth consecutive day of gains.Investors are showing some renewed risk appetite, encouraged by the successful auction of debt on the eve of Spanish and French and European Union decision to extend the "stress tests" to European industry as a whole.

As for European values, the bank has supported the ongoing titles Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and UBS gaining 1.72% and 6.06%.

The title has sold BP 0.63%, after Moody's lowered by three levels of the credit rating of the oil company, which also seek to borrow seven billion dollars to seven banks.