News – Business & Economi

The series of elections on Sunday to test the austerity policies in the euro area opens a new period of political uncertainty and risk of reviving the sovereign debt crisis, reinforcing the need a growth initiative whose principle has gradually established itself.

The victory of the socialist candidate for the French presidential election of Nicolas Sarkozy is the eleventh leader of the ousted euro area since the outbreak of the crisis and the implementation of austerity policies imposed by Germany and aimed at the curb. 

"I'm sure in many European countries Caa was a relief, a hope, that finally the idea of ​​austerity could no longer be inevitable "said Francois Hollande, in a speech at his election night.

"That's what I say as soon as possible to our European partners and first in Germany," he said.

Francois Hollande has been negotiating a pact designed to complement growth of the fiscal pact, signed in early March by 25 of the 27 countries of the European Union, a of his campaign themes. 

His election of Francois Hollande with 51.6% against 48.4% in the outgoing President Nicolas Sarkozy, argued that German Chancellor Angela Merkel does not lift all the political uncertainties that will last at least until the legislatures of 10 and 17 June

In Greece, the results of parliamentary elections confirm the expected scenario of a sharp fall in two main formations.

The conservative New Democracy and PASOK Socialists, who run alternately in decades, pay their support for draconian austerity measures taken since early 2010 in exchange for international financial assistance. 

SETBACKS FOR MERKEL

The breakthrough of the Coalition of the Radical Left hostile to the austerity and the entry of small parties in parliament, whose far-right "Golden Dawn", will make very difficult to find a majority and likely to fuel speculation about a renegotiation of the latest bailout plan or to an output of Greece in the euro area.

Fears deemed excessive by the economists of the investment bank Barclays Capital who point out that the Greeks remain overwhelmingly favorable to the euro but do not rule out political instability that would require the new elections later this year. 

"The risk is that non-European investors found a mistrust vis-à-vis the euro area rather marked," however, warns Philippe Waechter, an economist of the company ; Management Natixis Asset Management.

In Germany, the Christian Democrats (CDU) suffered another setback in losing the electoral state of Schleswig-Holstein region where the formation of Merkel saved her worst score since 1950.

The vote next week in the Land of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany's most populous nation, will also be closely watched to assess the popularity of the policy conducted by the Chancellor and the accession of German voters to European solidarity. 

The partial municipal Italy, which will continue Monday, are a test on more than nine million voters, or 20% of the electorate, the government expert Mario Monti, again full cure austerity.

The first election of the post-Berlusconi give the measure of the distrust of the Italians against their political leaders to a year of parliamentary elections in May 2013.

The electoral cycle in May will end with the Irish referendum on the new European fiscal pact, already ratified by three EU countries including Greece.

SHORT RESPITE

After a short respite allowed by the injection of more than one.000 billion euros of liquidity between late December and early March by the European Central Bank, tensions on sovereign debt are quickly reappeared.

Investors are worried because of the growing political and social pressure against austerity plans which they fear above all that they do not favor a relapse into recession economies most weakened by the crisis and with them the entire euro area.

If Spain, officially fallen into recession in first quarter, is in sight, the gap between the wages offered by the sovereign debt of Germany and that of almost all ; other European countries has increased in recent weeks. 

European policymakers have however begun to recognize and formally accept a lesson of economic history that no country wants out of a debt crisis by focusing only on austerity, this strategy has always resulted in either a depression or a default.

From the European Council in January and more at the March, the EU officials had stressed the need to complement fiscal consolidation by "measures determined ; are to stimulate growth and employment ". 

They had then discussed several tracks, as a better mobilization of structural funds, a means of strengthening the European Investment Bank or the possibility of bond issues at European level in order facilitate private financing of major projects, referring to the definition of terms in June of that support growth.

The willingness of the new French president throughout his campaign to promote European growth initiative in this context had met with a favorable in both countries weakened ; s like Italy and the European Commission but also in Germany and even the European Central Bank (ECB). 

Its intention to renegotiate the pact budget has however met with strong opposition, especially from Germany who does not intend to return to the priority given to fiscal consolidation.

His call for a more active role for the ECB to stimulate the economy through lower interest rates or direct loans to countries in difficulty also faces hostility from Germany.

POSSIBLE COMPROMISE

Even before his election, Francois Hollande, however inflected speech suggesting that the renegotiation of the pact would be part of budget negotiations with its European partners. 

The president-elect has also been careful to avoid referring to possible Eurobonds, of which Germany does not want to hear because they would constitute a first step towards pooling of European public debt that Berlin rejects.

Francois Hollande now prefers to discuss project requirements, an expression consistent with that used by other heads of state and government of the EU.

A compromise is therefore possible, but the size and financing of a possible growth strategy remain unclear. 

A mounting tensions on sovereign debt would leave the ECB in the immediate front line but also exacerbate the pressure for a stronger commitment on his part to alleviate the costs of funding all States in the euro area and encourage growth.

If he felt that the euro area needed a "Growth Pact", the ECB president also stressed that support for the activity should not be detrimental fiscal discipline.

"Recent comments by Mario Draghi, defending the idea of ​​a growth strategy implemented by European governments is primarily a way to avoid a debate on the mandate of the ECB could be refocused on growth, "say the economists and Exane BNP Paribas.

In most cases, fast cash loans are credited to the borrower's account within 24 hours. Sometimes the time taken may be even less, depending on the amount of loan as well as the company which processes your application.

At nearly $ 120 million, a version of "Scream" by Edvard Munch became a work of art the most expensive ever sold at auction. Sale by the businessman Norwegian Petter Olsen, identity is unknown to the buyer. The sale of the Munch allowed Sotheby's to beat its previous record for an evening auction of impressionist and modern art.

A version of "Scream", the Norwegian painter Edvard Munch, was sold Wednesday night for 119.92 million dollars in New York, becoming a work of art the most expensive ever sold at auction. The sale in the crowd of Sotheby's lasted only 12 minutes, sometimes climbing the auction of more than 10 million in one minute. In an electric atmosphere, seven buyers were hotly contested this work lighthouse, which was estimated at 80 million.  

The pastel made in 1895 and representing a man shouting, hands on ears, bloody sky background in Oslo, was the only one of four versions of "The Scream" still owned by an individual. The sale ended to loud applause, while the auctioneer Tobias Meyer announced a "world record". No detail was given on the buyer, in the center of much discussion after the sale, but the seller, businessman Norwegian Petter Olsen, said he was "very happy" to have become man such a record, at a brief press conference.

Between 1893 and 1910, Munch, expressionist painter (1863-1944) had made four versions of this table over the years become a symbol of universal anxiety. Wednesday night that sold during the sale of impressionist and modern art at Sotheby's for 70 years belonged to the family Olsen, Petter Olsen holding his father Thomas, neighbor, friend and protector of Munch. She had the particularity to include, in red letters inscribed on the frame of light wood, the poem that inspired this work among the best known in the world.

The other three versions of the table belong to the Munch Museum in Oslo (2) and the National Gallery in Oslo (1). Welcoming a "historic evening", Simon Shaw, head of Impressionist and modern art at Sotheby's, emphasized the universality of "Scream", the "key to the modern consciousness". The painting, which was the subject of countless books, films and studies, and has been declining over the years on mugs, calendars, t-shirts and other objects of daily life, is "one of the few images that transcend the art and history to reach the international conscience, "he stressed before the sale.

Only eight works had previously exceeded $ 80 million at an auction, and none had reached 100 million under the hammer, which was the case for Munch. The world record was previously held by Picasso, "Nu au Plateau sculptor", sold $ 106.4 million (with fees) in May 2010 at Christie's in New York. In his diary, January 22, 1892, Munch had explained his inspiration for "The Scream": "I was walking on a path with two friends. The sun was setting. Suddenly the sky turned blood red. I stopped, exhausted, I'm leaning on a fence, there was blood and tongues of fire above the blue-black fjord and city. My friends have continued, and I just stood there, trembling with fear. I sensed an infinite scream passing through the universe "

. Wednesday evening, Petter Olsen gave his own interpretation of a work" remain a major force in (his) life "." The Scream shows the scary moment for me where man realizes his impact on nature and irreversible changes that he initiated, making this planet more inhabitable, " he said, paying tribute to the vision "prescient" by Munch. With the revenues from the sale, he planned to build a new museum dedicated to the artist in Norway

.. The sale of the Munch ……. allowed Sotheby's to beat its previous record for an evening auction of impressionist and modern art, which was 286.2 million dollars, and dated from 1990. Wednesday night, the sales of 65 of the 76 proposed lots totaled 330.56 million dollars.

Consumer spending by French households fell 2.9% in March after a similar rise in February. Throughout the first quarter, they increased by 0.2%. Consumer spending by French households fell 2.9% in March 2012 due to lower energy costs.

French consumer spending fell sharply in March, largely due to lower energy bills, losing 2.9% compared to February, said Friday the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies ( INSEE). Consumption expenditure of households had jumped 2.9% in February as a result of the cold wave. Throughout the first quarter, they increased by 0.2%, after rising 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2011, INSEE said in a statement.  

"The decline in spending in March was largely due to lower energy costs and, to a lesser extent, that of food expenditures," said the institute. Thus, food consumption was down 2.3% after two consecutive months of increases. As for energy, INSEE found a "return to normal + + after the cold snap in February."

Spending on durable goods rose in March (+1.5% after -0.9% in February). Throughout the quarter, they were down 3.3% after rising 2.7% in the fourth quarter of 2011. Despite a recovery in March (+2.3% after -0.5% in February), spending on cars down the entire first quarter (-5.6% after +4.4%). Similarly, those in home equipment increased slightly in March (+0.2% after -0.6% in February) but receding in the quarter (-0.9% after +1.3%).

The Parisian house prices are falling for the first time since 2009. This trend can it last? The responses of Sébastien de Lafond, President of MeilleursAgents.com. Paris Real Estate, Second District, Point Trigano.

After the delirium, appeasement. The Paris property prices are going down, all professionals are unanimous, including notaries. The period October 2011 to January 2012, the price per m2 of housing in Paris and has declined slightly, to 8340 euros/m2, instead of 8370 euros previously. This represents a 0.3% decrease. The capital rappoche so the trend throughout the Paris region (-0.6% over the same period). Certainly, the decline is limited, but it denotes with previous years of sharp increase. The notice of Sébastien de Lafond is President of MeilleursAgents.com.

What do we see on the Paris market?

The Paris market has long been an exception to the French property market. If you look at the figures for previous years, between the third quarter 2009 and third quarter 2010, prices rose by 13.8% in Paris. And in 2011, the increase was 15% for old apartments. Result, the price per m2 in Paris reached 8,344 euros. The left bank has skyrocketed. First explanation: the exploding demand, strong excess relative to supply, fueled by several factors: historically low interest rates, a preference for stone instead of the stock market, investors have never been as many ( 26% of buyers, against 16% in all of France). All in a context of shortage of housing. In Ile-de-France, we need 70,000 homes a year to meet demand, then we do not built for that half hour. Another factor increase: foreign demand, which influences prices in many districts, the first in the eighth arrondissement, the 16th-but also and especially on certain types of property high-end or central ashore. This is a customer with high purchasing power, thus likely to distort the market structure high-end. Still, foreigners account for barely 5% of buyers.

The price on the Paris market have they peaked?

Today, no doubt, this market is cooling and has been since last July. The last six months, prices in Paris intra muros lost 3.5%, even lower in the inner suburbs and it is around 5% in the outer suburbs. Similarly, the transaction time is 50 days in Paris twice a year ago and 40 to 80 days in the Ile-de-France. In nine out of 10 districts, prices declined in the fourth quarter of 2011 versus the third quarter of that year. The volume of property transactions fell 15% in Paris and 20% in small and large crown.

How can we explain this decline?

On the one hand, we lost 30% of buyers from last year. First reason: the prices in Paris and the Ile de France have reached very high levels. For proof, from June 2009 to June 2011, they increased by 29%. Given this rise, many buyers say "stop". Another reason to be bullish: the banks are much more restrictive in terms of access to mortgages since the Greek crisis. Now, exit the small arrangements if you are on probation or if you have a low intake. Have a permanent and present a contribution of 5 to 10% is the rule in any bank. Moreover, the monthly credit shall not exceed 1/3 of disposable income of the borrower. Finally, we lost about 10% of buyers due to the suppression of PTZ + in the former, which was included last year in 40% of real estate transactions in the former.

On the other hand, the decline was due to the 20% of sellers and less. The sale is generally followed by a purchase. But in an economic context is not conducive to going into debt over twenty years, coupled with a fear of the future and an uncertain economy, people are more cautious. Finally, the election deadline pushes the real estate project.

The decline in the market Ile can it continue?

We announce a drop of about 5% to 10% of Paris and the Ile-de-France at least until June But this drop will not be sustainable if rates continue to decline as is currently the case in most banks. Because if interest rates fall, prices rise. However, if they increase, prices are revised downwards. This hypothesis is highly possible with the economic crisis in Spain today. The rate of OAT, (the rate at which borrows France over 10 years) may increase. However, if lending rates rise by 1%, prices could fall by 15%.

Beyond these predictions, the basic problem remains, we have a deficit of housing particularly marked in the Paris region market. Given migration, birth rates, etc.., Demand for the stone is too large to attend a substantial fall in prices in Paris, in small and large crown. The new housing shortage keeps prices. It is for this reason that the drop is, and will only be on if the new housing construction remains at this level. Buyers should not expect a substantial fall in prices. Today the market is experiencing a slight decline. This is a good time to buy in Ile-de-France.

But who can still buy in Paris?

In the capital, buyers under 30 have almost disappeared but the secondo-time buyers drive the market. Those buy for resale and are immunized against rising prices. We defined three categories of buyers. High-income couples, 30 to 40 years, may in turn seek apartments from 60 to 100 m2 through debt of 20 to 25 years. The secondly-time buyers who bought there over five years and can make a nice capital gain are now the most dynamic part of the application. But they are experiencing shortages of goods. Finally come the investors with a medium-to long term.

Unemployment in Germany fell in March to 6.7%, its lowest level since the reunification of the country, a decline which heightens the contrast between Europe's largest economy and its neighbors and should support both consumption and wage demands.

The number of job seekers decreased by 18,000 over the past month, its fifth straight decline, returning to 2.841 million according to figures adjusted for seasonal variation (CV) published ; s Thursday by the Federal Labour Office.

This decrease is more pronounced than expected since the 35 economists polled by Reuters had expected a decline of 10,000. 

"The resilience of the German labor market bodes well for private consumption in the first half," commented Carsten Brzeski, economist at ING.

"The mild weather in March and almost unwavering optimism of entrepreneurs seem the main drivers of the improvement of the fall in unemployment announced today."

These figures are good news for the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, whose estimates are based largely on increased tax revenues.

They also enhance the contrast between Germany and France, where the numbers of unemployment in February hit their highest level since October 1999. 

While the German population is nearly 30% higher than the French, the number of jobseekers CVS is now lower than that of unemployed Class A in the Hexagon.

SALARY INCREASES OF POSSIBLE

4%

If the German economy, driven by exports, has recovered quickly from the 2008-2009 financial crisis, it has not escaped the relapse caused the end of 2011, contracting by 0.2% in the fourth quarter due to the debt crisis in the euro area and its impact on global demand. 

It seems to be resurged since the beginning of this year, which led several economic research institutes to raise their growth projections and e ; housing with near certainty the hypothesis of a new recession (two consecutive quarters of declining GDP).

Buoyant labor market in this climate generally heckled favored improving consumer confidence, rising in six of seven months as the barometer of the GfK. 

The decline in unemployment has led parallel to the German unions claim higher wages after several years of rigor in this area: the central Verdi and IG Metall and ask one the other increases of 6.5% for the approximately five million workers they represent.

For Christian Schulz, an economist at Berenberg Bank, wage growth is "inevitable" because of tensions on the labor market.

"While it is unlikely that requests for increases of 6% are accepted, agreements with increases of 4% are possible," said he. "With inflation back to 2.1% in March, wage increases may provide important new welcome boost to consumer spending."

Many economists note, however, that the downward trend in unemployment slows as lessens the impact of reforms implemented in recent years to increase the flexibility of the labor market .

The crude oil prices have come down Tuesday on fears related to Greece and world economic growth.

On the Nymex, crude for April delivery ended at 104.70 dollars a barrel, down 2.02 dollars or 1.89%.

In London, ICE Brent for delivery in April ended at 121.98 dollars a barrel, down $ 1.82 or 1.47%.

After the close of markets, prices continued to decline according to figures from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showing an increase of 4.6 million in crude inventories last week in the U.S. States, while the market was expecting an increase of 800,000 barrels only.

The official government figures (EIA) will be published Wednesday. 

Investors have also noted a breakthrough in the Iranian nuclear issue, which has somewhat eased fears of supply disruptions.

Iran will allow experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to visit the Parchin military site, reported Tuesday the news agency ISNA. The spokesman of the foreign policy of the European Union, Catherine Ashton, for his part announced that the major powers were willing to resume talks with Tehran .

The values ​​of the day Friday at the Paris Bourse, where the CAC 40 closed up 0.04% to 3501.17 points, while he had not completed beyond 3500 since die ; goal in August, after a week marked by the second operation of loans to three years of the European Central Bank (ECB).

Over the whole week, the CAC 40 gained 0.98%:

* Values ​​BANK supported the coast, always carried by the second massive injection of liquidity to three years of the ECB, especially as their valuations remain low despite their strong rebound since the first of LTRO mid-December.

SOCIETE GENERALE took 1.34% to 25.395 euros, Credit Agricole 4.945% to 0.86 euros and BNP Paribas 1.50% to 37.915 euros. 

Dexia has won 5.32%, largest increase in the SBF 120, to 0.297 euro. Dexia Credit Local, its French subsidiary, launched a takeover offer for 700 million euros of subordinated notes issued in November 2005.

* Veolia Environnement won 4.74%, largest increase in the CAC 40, to 11.050 euros, having continued its flight after a gain of 14.86% yesterday in anticipation of a recovery group of utilities.

WestLB raised its recommendation from "neutral" to "accumulate".

Its major competitor SUEZ ENVIRONMENT has won 3.51% to 11.800 euros.

* Vivendi has lost 0.97% to 14.360 euros, the second biggest drop in the CAC 40 index, behind EADS (-1.43% to 27.650 euros). The title had already fallen by over 10% yesterday on the prospect of two turbulent years ahead. JPMorgan cut its rating to "overweight" to "neutral". Barclays, Cheuvreux, Deutsche Bank and Nomura have lowered their price target.

* AREVA has gained 4.73% to 20.020 euros, despite mixed results in 2011, after confirming its targets for the period 2012-2016 in a difficult global context.

* NEOPOST rose 1.77% to 52.420 euros after a turnover in 2011 better than expected and the prospect of further growth this year.

Gilbert Dupont raised its target price from 55.60 to 57.90 euros.

* IPSOS, lost 3.32%, largest drop in the SBF 120, to 26.170 euros, having continued to decline from the previous day (-1.33%) after a disappointing forecast operating margin rational 2012, of the order of 10%. Cheuvreux is no longer for sale.

* Technicolor has won 5.73%, largest increase in the SBF 120, to 2.305 euros, while Barclays raised its price target to 2.19 euros.

The unemployment rate in France in late 2011 now stands at 9.8%, up 0.1 points over one year. A total of 3.4 million people are seeking employment. Agency employment center in Nice

The unemployment rate in France rose by 0.1 points in the fourth quarter 2011 compared to the previous quarter to 9.4% of the workforce (9.8% overseas departments included), announced the INSEE Thursday. This rate, calculated according to the standards of the International Labour Office (ILO), was also up 0.1 points versus the fourth quarter of 2010, INSEE said.

In France, 2,678,000 people were unemployed on average in the fourth quarter. But in total, 3.4 million people were unemployed and wanted to still work, or not available for this within two weeks and looking for work or not. This is the third consecutive increase, after the unemployment rate in the third quarter (9.3%) and second quarter 2011 (9.1%).

Labour Minister Xavier Bertrand noted but noted that "France has fared better than its main partners to the global crisis" between the second quarter 2007 and third quarter of 2011, citing OECD data. Unemployment among 15-24 year olds, great concern of the government, rose by 0.8 point compared to the previous quarter and by 0.2 percent yoy. The youth unemployment rate rises from 21.6% to 22.4%, or about 626,000 people.

Involuntary part-time increases

The unemployment rate for seniors is improving slightly on the contrary, down 0.1 points from the previous quarter. It remains up (0.2 pt) to the last quarter of 2010. Some 485,000 people aged over 50 were looking for a job in the last quarter of 2011. The employment rate of older, more and more likely to stay in business with the successive reforms of pensions, continued to grow (a point on the previous quarter, 1.6 points over one year). The increase was pronounced for those aged 55-64 (1.4 pt in the quarter, 2.8 points over one year).

The employment rate in permanent contract (CDI) is stable in the fourth quarter of 2011, to 48.7% of the population aged 15-64. Rate for those employed in CDD / Acting rose slightly and stood at 6.8%. Partial unemployment, the government and social partners come to reform to facilitate its implementation, down 0.3 percentage points and stood at 0.2% of employed persons. Involuntary part-time increased slightly to 5% of people with jobs. Finally, the unemployment rate is declining in women (-0.1 pt the quarter, -0.3 pt yoy) as he progresses on the contrary men (0.4 pt the quarter , 0.6 pt yoy).

The main European stock markets opened on a rebound Friday in the wake of Wall Street and Asian markets, investors anticipating an abundant liquidity injection of long-term European Central Bank (ECB) the next week.

Around 9:15, the Paris Bourse gaining 0.53% to 3,465 points, Frankfurt and London takes 0.86% 0.18% advance. The pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 0.62%.

In Paris, Technicolor was down almost 5% after the announcement of an EBITDA down 5.9% in 2011 to 475 million euros. The action is Eiffage it head increases the SBF 120, the construction group has forecast a rise in net profit in 2012 after declining in 2011.

Banks are among the highest increases in Europe sector (0.86%). Deutsche Bank and Barclays gained 2.8% 1.4%. The Paris BNP Paribas and Societe Generale gaining 1.4% and 1.9%.

Lloyds Banking Group ahead by 1.3% after yet warned that its net banking income would decline in 2012, suffering, like his counterpart Royal Bank of Scotland, a heavy loss in 2011.

BASF takes 2.8% after announcing Friday that its results and its turnover increase this year thanks to a rebound in the second half.

Many analysts believe the weakness of the European economy will force the ECB to continue easing its monetary policy. The market is expected to lend some 500 billion euros to banks at its second financing package to three years scheduled for next week.

The Tokyo Stock Exchange closed up 0.44% Thursday, a weaker yen supporting market sentiment and risk appetite without the Nikkei manages to surpass the 9,600 points .

The Nikkei gained 41.57 points to 9,595.57 and the Topix broader took 3.95 points (0.48%) to 829.35.