The outlook tempered optimism about the profits of the S & P500
While the earnings season ends business in the United States, optimism about the earnings outlook for the third quarter gradually eroded as investors fearing that the weak demand reflected by the indicators Macroeconomic weigh on sales and margins of listed companies.
While only a handful of companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 has not yet submitted its accounts, the average growth index of profits in the second quarter stood at 38.4% compared to the corresponding period of the Last year, according to data from Thomson Reuters.
Such performance is unlikely to be equaled in the third quarter.The estimates, which are currently still at the level they were in early July, predicting earnings growth of 24.9% over one year.
"It could well be one of the last quarter for which the results are as good as mine.There is already, for example, they slow down or they're to move downward for 2011, "said Pankaj Patel, analyst at Credit Suisse in New York.
If 75% of the S & P 500 have exceeded estimates in the second quarter, compared to an historical average of 62%, many observers believe that profit margins could well have peaked.
Productivity has in fact declined by 0.9% over the same period, suggesting that companies may well find themselves unable to maintain their level of profitability.
ESTIMATES TOO OPTIMISTIC?
The average margin for the S & P 500 was 8.9% in April-June, against 6.2% a year earlier, according to Howard Silverblatt, an analyst at Standard & Poor's.
The disappointing economic indicators published in recent weeks, particularly on the employment front, began to be integrated into the course: the S & P 500 has a 0.7% drop since July 12, the start of the season results .
"There are many headwinds (…) and if you start to take them into account, we see that some numbers may be too optimistic," said Alan Lancz, president of Alan B. Lancz & Associates, an investment consulting firm.
The second part of the earnings season has been worse than the first.Of more than 2,000 U.S. companies announced their accounts, more than 70% have exceeded analysts' estimates during the first half of the period of publication, but this ratio fell to 66% by the end of the season, according to analysts at the company Studies Bespoke Investment Group.
For the third quarter, the estimates should not change much more until early October.
"Unless exceptional economic event (…) a major change in numbers is unlikely" for at least several weeks, Judge John Butters, head of U.S. monitoring results, Thomson Reuters.
The restatement of financial results of listed companies has been a major driver of the rebound in the S & P 500 from the lowest 12 years hit early in March 2009 and since then, the index rose by 58%.